Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 02:00
Kicked offFC Livyi Bereh Kyiv – Polissya Zhytomyr
Model updated 12 September, 14:53 Best odds updated 12 September, 14:52
What the model expects
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 16%
- Draw
- 27%
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 57%
| FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | Draw | Polissya Zhytomyr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 6.26 | 3.69 | 1.76 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- Model
- 16.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 12.4%
- Probability gap
- +3.6 pp
- Edge
- +11.9%
- Fair odds
- 6.26
- Market odds
- 7.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.57
- Bookmaker margin
- 15.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.7%
- Probability gap
- +6.4 pp
- Edge
- +13.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.69
- Market odds
- 4.20 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.88
- Bookmaker margin
- 15.0%
-
Polissya Zhytomyr
- Model
- 56.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 66.9%
- Probability gap
- −9.9 pp
- Edge
- −26.0%
- Fair odds
- 1.76
- Market odds
- 1.30 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.84
- Bookmaker margin
- 15.0%
Outcomes with value
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win
Model 16.0% vs. bookmaker 12.4%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Polissya Zhytomyr
57% Polissya Zhytomyr to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 7th
- Polissya Zhytomyr attack v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 14th
- Polissya Zhytomyr defence v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.47 vs +0.17
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 0.89 – 1.75
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv v Polissya Zhytomyr
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | Polissya Zhytomyr |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.71 · 14th | (better) 2.19 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.09 · 5th | (better) 0.68 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.38 · 11th | (better) +1.51 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.01 · 11th | (better) 2.29 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.17 | (better) +1.48 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 5 matches
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Polissya Zhytomyr
- 1 match
- Computed
- Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 14:53
- Odds updated
- 21 days ago · over a day old
Warnings
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.