Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
6d 15h to kick-offLNZ Cherkasy – Kudrivka
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- LNZ Cherkasy
- 66%
- Draw
- 24%
- Kudrivka
- 10%
| LNZ Cherkasy | Draw | Kudrivka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.52 | 4.21 | 9.69 |
- Total goals
- 2.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans LNZ Cherkasy
66% LNZ Cherkasy to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 16th
- LNZ Cherkasy attack v Kudrivka defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 15th
- LNZ Cherkasy defence v Kudrivka attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.82 vs -1.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.91 – 0.71
- LNZ Cherkasy v Kudrivka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | LNZ Cherkasy | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 3rd | 0.86 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.26 · 7th | 2.50 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.84 · 5th | -1.65 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.64 · 6th | 0.54 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.82 | -1.65 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- LNZ Cherkasy clean sheet
- 47%
- LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0
- 13.6%
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 1:0
- 11.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- LNZ Cherkasy sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · LNZ Cherkasy
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Kudrivka
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.