Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 13h to kick-offMetalist 1925 – FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Metalist 1925
- 61%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 12%
| Metalist 1925 | Draw | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.65 | 3.64 | 8.47 |
- Total goals
- 2.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 45%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Metalist 1925
61% Metalist 1925 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 7th
- Metalist 1925 attack v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 14th
- Metalist 1925 defence v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.17 vs -0.20
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 0.67
- Metalist 1925 v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Metalist 1925 | FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.42 · 1st from 4 matches | 0.71 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.79 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.09 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.63 · 1st from 4 matches | -0.38 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.23 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.01 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.17 | -0.20 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- Metalist 1925 clean sheet
- 48%
- Metalist 1925 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 55%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 1:0
- 14.1%
- 2:0
- 13.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Metalist 1925 sample
- 20 matches
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · Metalist 1925
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.