Friday, 23/10/2026 at 12:00
Full timePolissya Zhytomyr 3:0 Obolon Kyiv
Polissya Zhytomyr were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 66%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Obolon Kyiv's attack: 0.09 xG against 0.71 projected (−0.62). Polissya Zhytomyr produced 2.50 xG against 1.93 projected (+0.57).
The model against the result
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 66% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- Obolon Kyiv
- 10%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Obolon Kyiv produced 0.62 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 3
- On target
- 7
- 0
- Inside the box
- 13
- 0
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.03
Recent form
2.37 xG created 0.78 xGA
- W 1.34 created, 0.94 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- W 5.21 created, 1.06 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.55 created, 0.23 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- W 2.12 created, 0.44 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- D 2.64 created, 0.72 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- W 1.38 created, 1.28 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
0.93 xG created 1.80 xGA
- D 0.04 created, 3.27 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- D 1.48 created, 1.03 conceded against Kudrivka
- D 0.25 created, 0.78 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 0.42 created, 4.19 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- D 1.75 created, 0.93 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- W 1.62 created, 0.62 conceded against Veres Rivne
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged0 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Obolon Kyiv to score | 2.50 | +33.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.63 | +26.5% | Lost |
| Obolon Kyiv to win | 12.00 | +21.2% | Lost |
| Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals | 8.00 | +19.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.00 | +17.4% | Lost |
| Polissya Zhytomyr at most 1 goal | 2.75 | +11.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +1.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polissya Zhytomyr | 66.4% | 74.6% | −8.2 pp | 1.51 |
| Draw | 23.5% | 17.9% | +5.6 pp | 4.26 |
| Obolon Kyiv | 10.1% | 7.5% | +2.6 pp | 9.90 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polissya Zhytomyr to score | 87.6% | 86.6% | +1.0 pp | 1.14 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr not to score | 12.4% | 13.4% | −1.0 pp | 8.09 |
| Obolon Kyiv to score | 53.4% | 37.5% | +15.9 pp | 1.87 |
| Obolon Kyiv not to score | 46.6% | 62.5% | −15.9 pp | 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 35.5% | +12.7 pp | 2.07 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.8% | 64.5% | −12.7 pp | 1.93 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals | 59.6% | 66.3% | −6.7 pp | 1.68 |
| Polissya Zhytomyr at most 1 goal | 40.4% | 33.7% | +6.7 pp | 2.47 |
| Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals | 15.0% | 11.7% | +3.2 pp | 6.68 |
| Obolon Kyiv at most 1 goal | 85.0% | 88.3% | −3.2 pp | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | 76.6% | +1.2 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 23.4% | −1.2 pp | 4.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 53.9% | −3.5 pp | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 46.1% | +3.5 pp | 2.02 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.