Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 13h to kick-offShakhtar Donetsk – Kolos Kovalivka
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 60%
- Draw
- 26%
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 13%
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Kolos Kovalivka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.66 | 3.82 | 7.42 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Shakhtar Donetsk
60% Shakhtar Donetsk to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- Shakhtar Donetsk attack v Kolos Kovalivka defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 10th
- Shakhtar Donetsk defence v Kolos Kovalivka attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.96 vs -0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.79 – 0.81
- Shakhtar Donetsk v Kolos Kovalivka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Shakhtar Donetsk | Kolos Kovalivka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.88 · 5th | 1.34 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.92 · 3rd | 1.69 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.96 · 3rd | -0.34 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.01 · 4th | 1.15 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.96 | -0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet
- 41%
- Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 2:0
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Shakhtar Donetsk
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Kolos Kovalivka
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.