AC Oulu 1:2 IF Gnistan: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu Home 0.95 xG

IF Gnistan Away 1.94 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

IF Gnistan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was IF Gnistan's attack: 1.94 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.53). AC Oulu produced 0.95 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.30).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AC Oulu: 31%
Draw: 31%
IF Gnistan: 39% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AC Oulu 1.25 0.95 -0.30

IF Gnistan 1.41 1.94 +0.53

IF Gnistan produced 0.53 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AC Oulu IF Gnistan

Shots: 10; 14
On target: 5; 5
Inside the box: 6; 7
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AC Oulu

1.37 xG created 1.31 xGA

D 2.72 created, 2.55 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.41 created, 1.27 conceded against Ilves
L 0.22 created, 1.66 conceded against HJK
W 0.68 created, 0.93 conceded against FF Jaro
D 0.77 created, 0.37 conceded against SJK
L 2.41 created, 1.06 conceded against VPS

IF Gnistan

2.06 xG created 1.79 xGA

W 4.54 created, 0.60 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.33 created, 1.19 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.78 created, 3.74 conceded against Inter Turku
L 2.27 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
D 1.02 created, 2.63 conceded against SJK
W 1.40 created, 1.43 conceded against HJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AC Oulu: 1 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AC Oulu against IF Gnistan before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
IF Gnistan to win	3.00	+15.8%	Won
AC Oulu at most 1 goal	1.67	+6.1%	Won
IF Gnistan 2+ goals	2.50	+5.9%	Won
Draw	3.40	+4.0%	Lost
AC Oulu not to score	4.00	+2.4%	Lost
IF Gnistan to score	1.30	+1.9%	Won
Both teams to score	1.67	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Oulu	30.8%	41.5%	−10.6 pp	3.25
Draw	30.6%	27.4%	+3.1 pp	3.27
IF Gnistan	38.6%	31.1%	+7.5 pp	2.59

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Oulu to score	74.4%	76.6%	−2.2 pp	1.34
AC Oulu not to score	25.6%	23.4%	+2.2 pp	3.91
IF Gnistan to score	78.4%	72.3%	+6.1 pp	1.28
IF Gnistan not to score	21.6%	27.7%	−6.1 pp	4.63
Both teams to score	60.1%	55.7%	+4.4 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.9%	44.3%	−4.4 pp	2.51
AC Oulu 2+ goals	36.4%	44.3%	−7.9 pp	2.75
AC Oulu at most 1 goal	63.6%	55.7%	+7.9 pp	1.57
IF Gnistan 2+ goals	42.3%	37.5%	+4.8 pp	2.36
IF Gnistan at most 1 goal	57.7%	62.5%	−4.8 pp	1.73
Over 1.5 goals	78.8%	76.6%	+2.2 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.2%	23.4%	−2.2 pp	4.72
Over 2.5 goals	51.1%	52.6%	−1.5 pp	1.96
Under 2.5 goals	48.9%	47.4%	+1.5 pp	2.05

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AC Oulu sample: 20 matches
IF Gnistan sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.