xgEdge

Expected goals

AC Oulu expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Veikkausliiga · after 22 matches · updated 1 Oct

AC Oulu's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

AC Oulu xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.20 xG per match
#11/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 KuPS 1.96
#2 FC Lahti 1.80
#3 Inter Turku 1.78
#4 HJK 1.77
#5 Ilves 1.72
#6 SJK 1.71
#7 IF Gnistan 1.61
#8 VPS 1.56
#9 TPS 1.50
#10 FF Jaro 1.21
#11 AC Oulu 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.10
League avg
1.57
Total
26.46 22 matches
Defence
1.58 xGA per match
#7/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 0.93
#2 KuPS 1.26
#3 HJK 1.32
#4 FC Lahti 1.42
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 VPS 1.44
#7 AC Oulu 1.58
#8 TPS 1.58
#9 SJK 1.67
#10 FF Jaro 1.71
#11 Ilves 1.94
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.50
League avg
1.57
Total
34.68 22 matches
xG difference
-0.37 xGD per match
#10/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.86
#2 KuPS +0.70
#3 HJK +0.45
#4 FC Lahti +0.38
#5 IF Gnistan +0.18
#6 VPS +0.12
#7 SJK +0.04
#8 TPS -0.08
#9 Ilves -0.21
#10 AC Oulu -0.37
#11 FF Jaro -0.50
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.41
League avg
0.00
Total
-8.22 22 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.13 xPts per match
#10/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.96
#2 KuPS 1.78
#3 HJK 1.74
#4 FC Lahti 1.51
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 SJK 1.42
#7 VPS 1.36
#8 Ilves 1.35
#9 TPS 1.32
#10 AC Oulu 1.13
#11 FF Jaro 1.05
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.69
League avg
1.39
Total
24.91 vs 34 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 22 of 25 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

AC Oulu's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Veikkausliiga. They rank #10 for xG difference at -0.37 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 22 goals are 4.46 below 26.46 xG, while 31 points are 6.09 above 24.91 xPts — both over the 22 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 3.45 xG from penalties
22 26.46 -4.46 scored 4.46 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
25 34.68 -9.68 conceded 9.68 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
31 24.91 +6.09 6.09 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

AC Oulu are 4.46 goals below their xG after 22 matches.

Goals
22
xG
26.46
Gap
-4.46
Sat 04/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 18/04 Wed 22/04 Sat 25/04 Sat 16/05 Sat 23/05 Sun 31/05 Sat 13/06 Thu 18/06 Tue 23/06 Sat 27/06 Sat 11/07 Sat 18/07 Sat 25/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 22/08 Mon 31/08 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Fri 18/09 -5 -3 -1 +1 +3 +5 +3.78 +3.87 +4.04 +4.17 +4.48 +4.61 +4.23 +4.85 +4.17 +3.27 +3.63 +2.88 +2.25 +1.06 -0.66 -1.07 -1.29 -0.97 -1.74 -4.15 -4.10 -4.46 +3.78 +0.09 +0.17 +0.13 +0.31 +0.13 -0.38 +0.62 -0.68 -0.90 +0.36 -0.75 -0.63 -1.19 -1.72 -0.41 -0.22 +0.32 -0.77 -2.41 +0.05 -0.36 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
AC Oulu: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 04/04 IF Gnistan 5 1.22 +3.78 +3.78
Sat 11/04 HJK 1 0.91 +0.09 +3.87
Sat 18/04 VPS 1 0.83 +0.17 +4.04
Wed 22/04 KuPS 2 1.87 +0.13 +4.17
Sat 25/04 FC Lahti 1 0.69 +0.31 +4.48
Sat 16/05 TPS 1 0.87 +0.13 +4.61
Sat 23/05 SJK 1 1.38 -0.38 +4.23
Sun 31/05 FF Jaro 2 1.38 +0.62 +4.85
Sat 13/06 Inter Turku 0 0.68 -0.68 +4.17
Thu 18/06 IFK Mariehamn 2 2.90 -0.90 +3.27
Tue 23/06 VPS 1 0.64 +0.36 +3.63
Sat 27/06 FC Lahti 1 1.75 -0.75 +2.88
Sat 11/07 TPS 0 0.63 -0.63 +2.25
Sat 18/07 IF Gnistan 0 1.19 -1.19 +1.06
Sat 25/07 IFK Mariehamn 1 2.72 -1.72 -0.66
Sun 02/08 Ilves 1 1.41 -0.41 -1.07
Sun 09/08 HJK 0 0.22 -0.22 -1.29
Sat 22/08 FF Jaro 1 0.68 +0.32 -0.97
Mon 31/08 SJK 0 0.77 -0.77 -1.74
Tue 08/09 VPS 0 2.41 -2.41 -4.15
Sat 12/09 IF Gnistan 1 0.95 +0.05 -4.10
Fri 18/09 Inter Turku 0 0.36 -0.36 -4.46

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

AC Oulu xG trend

Current form -0.55 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 22 matches. The worst was against Inter Turku on Fri 18/09 (-2.37).

npxG · last 6
0.77
npxGA · last 6
1.32
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.11 Sat 04/04 -0.43 Sat 11/04 -0.11 Sat 18/04 -0.48 Wed 22/04 -0.05 Sat 25/04 +0.03 Sat 16/05 -0.93 Sat 23/05 -0.16 Sun 31/05 -1.62 Sat 13/06 +0.76 Thu 18/06 -2.34 Tue 23/06 +0.41 Sat 27/06 -0.51 Sat 11/07 -0.14 Sat 18/07 +0.16 Sat 25/07 -0.12 Sun 02/08 -1.44 Sun 09/08 -0.25 Sat 22/08 +0.39 Mon 31/08 +0.59 Tue 08/09 -0.23 Sat 12/09 -2.37 Fri 18/09 -0.41 season avg
AC Oulu: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 04/04 IF Gnistan 1.22 1.33 -0.11 -0.11
Sat 11/04 HJK 0.91 1.34 -0.43 -0.27
Sat 18/04 VPS 0.83 0.94 -0.11 -0.22
Wed 22/04 KuPS 1.11 1.59 -0.48 -0.28
Sat 25/04 FC Lahti 0.69 0.74 -0.05 -0.24
Sat 16/05 TPS 0.88 0.85 +0.03 -0.19
Sat 23/05 SJK 1.38 2.31 -0.93 -0.30
Sun 31/05 FF Jaro 0.73 0.89 -0.16 -0.28
Sat 13/06 Inter Turku 0.68 2.30 -1.62 -0.43
Thu 18/06 IFK Mariehamn 2.90 2.14 +0.76 -0.31
Tue 23/06 VPS 0.64 2.98 -2.34 -0.49
Sat 27/06 FC Lahti 1.17 0.76 +0.41 -0.42
Sat 11/07 TPS 0.63 1.14 -0.51 -0.43
Sat 18/07 IF Gnistan 1.19 1.33 -0.14 -0.41
Sat 25/07 IFK Mariehamn 1.95 1.79 +0.16 -0.37
Sun 02/08 Ilves 1.47 1.59 -0.12 -0.35
Sun 09/08 HJK 0.22 1.66 -1.44 -0.42
Sat 22/08 FF Jaro 0.68 0.93 -0.25 -0.41
Mon 31/08 SJK 0.77 0.38 +0.39 -0.37
Tue 08/09 VPS 1.65 1.06 +0.59 -0.32
Sat 12/09 IF Gnistan 0.95 1.18 -0.23 -0.31
Fri 18/09 Inter Turku 0.36 2.73 -2.37 -0.41

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.05 npxG and 1.45 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 2 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.05 xG vs league average
Over 25 league matches
Last 5
number 5 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.05 xG vs league average · over 25 matches · number 2 hardest of 12

  1. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  2. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  3. VPS Away +0.10
  4. SJK Home +0.02
  5. FF Jaro Away −0.38
  6. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  7. HJK Home +0.27
  8. Ilves Home −0.22
  9. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  10. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  11. TPS Away −0.08
  12. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  13. VPS Away +0.10
  14. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  15. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  16. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  17. SJK Away +0.02
  18. TPS Home −0.08
  19. Ilves Away −0.22
  20. KuPS Home +0.50
  21. FC Lahti Away +0.22
  22. KuPS Away +0.50
  23. VPS Home +0.10
  24. HJK Away +0.27
  25. IF Gnistan Away +0.06

Last 5

+0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 5 hardest of 12

  1. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  2. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  3. VPS Away +0.10
  4. SJK Home +0.02
  5. FF Jaro Away −0.38

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

AC Oulu shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. AC Oulu take 10.2 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #11 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #11 for quality. 63% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.2 shots per match
#11/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 KuPS 15.2
#2 FC Lahti 13.3
#3 Inter Turku 13.1
#4 TPS 13.0
#5 HJK 12.6
#6 SJK 12.4
#7 IF Gnistan 11.8
#8 FF Jaro 11.6
#9 Ilves 11.5
#10 VPS 11.0
#11 AC Oulu 10.2
#12 IFK Mariehamn 8.9
League avg
12.0
Total
224 shots from 22 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#11/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 HJK 0.14
#3 KuPS 0.13
#4 VPS 0.13
#5 Ilves 0.13
#6 Inter Turku 0.13
#7 IF Gnistan 0.13
#8 FC Lahti 0.13
#9 IFK Mariehamn 0.11
#10 TPS 0.11
#11 AC Oulu 0.10
#12 FF Jaro 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
23.01 npxG from 224 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.4 shots per match
#5/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Inter Turku 8.5
#2 KuPS 9.7
#3 FC Lahti 9.8
#4 VPS 11.4
#5 AC Oulu 11.4
#6 SJK 11.7
#7 HJK 12.0
#8 TPS 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 12.9
#10 FF Jaro 13.6
#11 Ilves 13.9
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.3
League avg
12.0
Total
251 shots allowed from 22 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#8/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Inter Turku 0.10
#2 IF Gnistan 0.10
#3 HJK 0.11
#4 TPS 0.11
#5 VPS 0.11
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 Ilves 0.13
#10 FC Lahti 0.13
#11 SJK 0.14
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
31.96 npxGA from 251 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

63% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 140 of 224 shots over 22 matches

Shots allowed, location

57% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 142 of 251 shots allowed over 22 matches

How the shot figures are made →

AC Oulu home and away xG

AC Oulu per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 13 11 with xG 12 11 with xG
xG / match 1.15 1.26
xGA / match 1.43 1.72
xGD / match -0.28 -0.47
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.20 1.07

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every AC Oulu match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
25 22 with xG
xG / match
1.20
xGA / match
1.58
xGD / match
-0.37
Points
34 of 75
  1. Fri 18/09 Inter Turku H Weakest underlying xG 0.36 xGA 2.73 xGD -2.37
  2. Sat 12/09 IF Gnistan H xG 0.95 xGA 1.94 P xGD -0.99
  3. Tue 08/09 VPS A Against the chances xG 2.41 P xGA 1.06 xGD +1.35
  4. Mon 31/08 SJK H xG 0.77 xGA 0.37 xGD +0.40
  5. Sat 22/08 FF Jaro A xG 0.68 xGA 0.93 xGD -0.25
  6. Sun 16/08 Inter Turku H
  7. Sun 09/08 HJK H xG 0.22 xGA 1.66 xGD -1.44
  8. Sun 02/08 Ilves H xG 1.41 xGA 1.27 xGD +0.14
  9. Sat 25/07 IFK Mariehamn A xG 2.72 P xGA 2.55 P xGD +0.17
  10. Sat 18/07 IF Gnistan H xG 1.19 xGA 1.33 xGD -0.14
  11. Sat 11/07 TPS A xG 0.63 xGA 1.90 P xGD -1.27
  12. Sat 27/06 FC Lahti H xG 1.75 P xGA 0.79 xGD +0.96
  13. Tue 23/06 VPS A xG 0.64 xGA 3.01 xGD -2.37
  14. Thu 18/06 IFK Mariehamn H xG 2.90 xGA 2.14 xGD +0.76
  15. Sat 13/06 Inter Turku A xG 0.68 xGA 2.30 xGD -1.62
  16. Sun 31/05 FF Jaro H xG 1.38 P xGA 1.65 P xGD -0.27
  17. Sat 23/05 SJK A xG 1.38 xGA 2.31 xGD -0.93
  18. Sat 16/05 TPS H xG 0.87 xGA 0.90 xGD -0.03
  19. Fri 08/05 Ilves A
  20. Sat 02/05 KuPS H
  21. Sat 25/04 FC Lahti A xG 0.69 xGA 0.64 xGD +0.05
  22. Wed 22/04 KuPS A xG 1.87 P xGA 1.59 xGD +0.28
  23. Sat 18/04 VPS H xG 0.83 xGA 0.94 xGD -0.11
  24. Sat 11/04 HJK A xG 0.91 xGA 1.34 xGD -0.43
  25. Sat 04/04 IF Gnistan A xG 1.22 xGA 1.33 xGD -0.11

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.01. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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