AC Oulu 0:1 Inter Turku: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

AC Oulu Home 0.36 xG

Inter Turku Away 2.73 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Inter Turku were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Inter Turku's attack: 2.73 xG against 1.50 projected (+1.23). AC Oulu produced 0.36 xG against 0.93 projected (−0.57).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AC Oulu: 20%
Draw: 30%
Inter Turku: 49% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AC Oulu 0.93 0.36 -0.57

Inter Turku 1.50 2.73 +1.23

Inter Turku produced 1.23 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AC Oulu Inter Turku

Shots: 5; 11
On target: 1; 6
Inside the box: 2; 7
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.25

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AC Oulu

1.07 xG created 1.21 xGA

W 1.41 created, 1.27 conceded against Ilves
L 0.22 created, 1.66 conceded against HJK
W 0.68 created, 0.93 conceded against FF Jaro
D 0.77 created, 0.37 conceded against SJK
L 2.41 created, 1.06 conceded against VPS
L 0.95 created, 1.94 conceded against IF Gnistan

Inter Turku

1.87 xG created 1.23 xGA

L 3.74 created, 1.78 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 0.87 created, 0.99 conceded against VPS
D 3.02 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Lahti
D 2.27 created, 1.03 conceded against TPS
L 0.48 created, 1.22 conceded against HJK
W 0.81 created, 0.58 conceded against VPS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AC Oulu: 0 won · 1 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AC Oulu against Inter Turku before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.95	+2.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Oulu	20.4%	24.2%	−3.8 pp	4.91
Draw	30.4%	28.0%	+2.5 pp	3.29
Inter Turku	49.2%	47.8%	+1.4 pp	2.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Oulu to score	63.4%	62.5%	+0.9 pp	1.58
AC Oulu not to score	36.6%	37.5%	−0.9 pp	2.74
Inter Turku to score	80.2%	76.6%	+3.6 pp	1.25
Inter Turku not to score	19.8%	23.4%	−3.6 pp	5.05
Both teams to score	52.7%	48.0%	+4.7 pp	1.90
Both teams not to score	47.3%	52.0%	−4.7 pp	2.11
AC Oulu 2+ goals	23.4%	26.9%	−3.5 pp	4.28
AC Oulu at most 1 goal	76.6%	73.1%	+3.5 pp	1.31
Inter Turku 2+ goals	45.4%	44.3%	+1.1 pp	2.20
Inter Turku at most 1 goal	54.6%	55.7%	−1.1 pp	1.83
Over 1.5 goals	73.9%	70.9%	+3.0 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	26.1%	29.1%	−3.0 pp	3.83
Over 2.5 goals	44.5%	45.4%	−0.9 pp	2.25
Under 2.5 goals	55.5%	54.6%	+0.9 pp	1.80

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AC Oulu sample: 20 matches
Inter Turku sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.