FF Jaro 1:1 SJK: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

FF Jaro Home

SJK Away

SJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FF Jaro: 30%
Draw: 28% What happened
SJK: 43%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FF Jaro

1.34 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.42 created, 1.89 conceded against FC Lahti
L 2.97 created, 1.98 conceded against VPS
L 0.91 created, 1.87 conceded against HJK
L 0.93 created, 0.68 conceded against AC Oulu
L 2.22 created, 1.15 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 0.58 created, 1.85 conceded against Ilves

SJK

1.47 xG created 1.54 xGA

W 1.41 created, 1.92 conceded against HJK
D 2.63 created, 1.02 conceded against IF Gnistan
L 0.85 created, 2.28 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 2.19 created, 2.54 conceded against FC Lahti
D 0.37 created, 0.77 conceded against AC Oulu
D 1.36 created, 0.70 conceded against TPS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FF Jaro: 1 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FF Jaro against SJK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+15.6%	Lost
FF Jaro 2+ goals	2.63	+12.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+9.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+7.2%	Won
FF Jaro to score	1.33	+4.9%	Won
SJK 2+ goals	1.91	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FF Jaro	29.7%	28.5%	+1.3 pp	3.36
Draw	27.6%	26.4%	+1.2 pp	3.62
SJK	42.7%	45.1%	−2.4 pp	2.34

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FF Jaro to score	78.7%	70.9%	+7.8 pp	1.27
FF Jaro not to score	21.3%	29.1%	−7.8 pp	4.70
SJK to score	84.3%	79.2%	+5.1 pp	1.19
SJK not to score	15.7%	20.8%	−5.1 pp	6.37
Both teams to score	67.8%	57.7%	+10.2 pp	1.47
Both teams not to score	32.2%	42.3%	−10.2 pp	3.11
FF Jaro 2+ goals	42.8%	35.5%	+7.3 pp	2.34
FF Jaro at most 1 goal	57.2%	64.5%	−7.3 pp	1.75
SJK 2+ goals	52.6%	48.5%	+4.1 pp	1.90
SJK at most 1 goal	47.4%	51.5%	−4.1 pp	2.11
Over 1.5 goals	85.8%	75.0%	+10.8 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.2%	25.0%	−10.8 pp	7.02
Over 2.5 goals	62.5%	51.3%	+11.2 pp	1.60
Under 2.5 goals	37.5%	48.7%	−11.2 pp	2.67

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FF Jaro sample: 20 matches
SJK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.