VPS 0:2 KuPS: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

VPS Home 1.05 xG

KuPS Away 0.65 xG

02 The result went against the chances

KuPS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was KuPS's attack: 0.65 xG against 1.71 projected (−1.06).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

VPS: 25%
Draw: 28%
KuPS: 47% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

VPS 1.26 1.05 -0.21

KuPS 1.71 0.65 -1.06

KuPS produced 1.06 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

VPS KuPS

Shots: 13; 7
On target: 1; 4
Inside the box: 8; 3
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VPS

1.13 xG created 1.66 xGA

L 0.99 created, 0.87 conceded against Inter Turku
W 1.98 created, 2.97 conceded against FF Jaro
L 0.97 created, 2.26 conceded against TPS
W 1.18 created, 0.66 conceded against Ilves
W 1.06 created, 2.41 conceded against AC Oulu
L 0.58 created, 0.81 conceded against Inter Turku

KuPS

1.64 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 2.42 created, 1.08 conceded against VPS
W 1.17 created, 2.27 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 1.69 created, 2.01 conceded against TPS
W 1.17 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.97 created, 1.47 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 1.45 created, 1.24 conceded against HJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

VPS: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on VPS against KuPS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
KuPS 2+ goals	2.20	+16.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.75	+12.9%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+8.9%	Lost
KuPS to score	1.25	+5.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+4.6%	Won
VPS to score	1.36	+1.7%	Lost
VPS 2+ goals	2.75	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
VPS	25.4%	28.3%	−2.9 pp	3.94
Draw	27.9%	27.5%	+0.4 pp	3.59
KuPS	46.7%	44.2%	+2.5 pp	2.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
VPS to score	74.5%	68.7%	+5.8 pp	1.34
VPS not to score	25.5%	31.3%	−5.8 pp	3.93
KuPS to score	84.5%	75.0%	+9.5 pp	1.18
KuPS not to score	15.5%	25.0%	−9.5 pp	6.43
Both teams to score	64.5%	53.3%	+11.2 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.5%	46.7%	−11.2 pp	2.82
VPS 2+ goals	36.5%	33.7%	+2.8 pp	2.74
VPS at most 1 goal	63.5%	66.3%	−2.8 pp	1.58
KuPS 2+ goals	52.9%	42.3%	+10.6 pp	1.89
KuPS at most 1 goal	47.1%	57.7%	−10.6 pp	2.12
Over 1.5 goals	83.7%	75.0%	+8.7 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.3%	25.0%	−8.7 pp	6.12
Over 2.5 goals	58.9%	51.3%	+7.6 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.1%	48.7%	−7.6 pp	2.43

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
VPS sample: 20 matches
KuPS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.