Hammarby IF 3:1 IF Brommapojkarna: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Hammarby IF Home 2.07 xG

IF Brommapojkarna Away 1.03 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Hammarby IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 79%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Hammarby IF's attack: 2.07 xG against 3.03 projected (−0.96).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Hammarby IF: 79% What happened
Draw: 14%
IF Brommapojkarna: 7%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Hammarby IF 3.03 2.07 -0.96

IF Brommapojkarna 0.99 1.03 +0.04

Hammarby IF produced 0.96 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Hammarby IF IF Brommapojkarna

Shots: 17; 8
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 9; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hammarby IF

3.43 xG created 0.86 xGA

D 2.32 created, 0.80 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
W 3.17 created, 0.38 conceded against BK Häcken
W 3.78 created, 0.42 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 3.00 created, 1.01 conceded against GAIS
L 4.26 created, 1.91 conceded against AIK
D 4.04 created, 0.61 conceded against Örgryte IS

IF Brommapojkarna

1.73 xG created 1.95 xGA

L 1.73 created, 3.22 conceded against Malmö FF
D 0.55 created, 2.16 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.40 created, 1.29 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.05 created, 1.08 conceded against Degerfors IF
L 1.13 created, 2.99 conceded against GAIS
W 1.51 created, 0.98 conceded against IF Elfsborg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Hammarby IF: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Hammarby IF against IF Brommapojkarna before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals	4.50	+17.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+15.1%	Won
IF Brommapojkarna to score	1.73	+13.5%	Won
Draw	8.00	+11.2%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.30	+2.5%	Won
Hammarby IF 2+ goals	1.22	+1.3%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.08	+1.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Hammarby IF	79.1%	78.4%	+0.8 pp	1.26
Draw	13.9%	11.8%	+2.1 pp	7.19
IF Brommapojkarna	7.0%	9.9%	−2.9 pp	14.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Hammarby IF to score	96.3%	93.6%	+2.7 pp	1.04
Hammarby IF not to score	3.7%	6.4%	−2.7 pp	26.74
IF Brommapojkarna to score	65.7%	53.7%	+12.1 pp	1.52
IF Brommapojkarna not to score	34.3%	46.3%	−12.1 pp	2.92
Both teams to score	63.9%	52.0%	+11.9 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	36.1%	48.0%	−11.9 pp	2.77
Hammarby IF 2+ goals	82.9%	76.6%	+6.3 pp	1.21
Hammarby IF at most 1 goal	17.1%	23.4%	−6.3 pp	5.85
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals	26.1%	20.8%	+5.3 pp	3.84
IF Brommapojkarna at most 1 goal	73.9%	79.2%	−5.3 pp	1.35
Over 1.5 goals	93.3%	88.1%	+5.3 pp	1.07
Under 1.5 goals	6.7%	11.9%	−5.3 pp	15.03
Over 2.5 goals	78.9%	72.9%	+5.9 pp	1.27
Under 2.5 goals	21.1%	27.1%	−5.9 pp	4.73

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Hammarby IF sample: 20 matches
IF Brommapojkarna sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.