Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 16:30
26d 22h to kick-offIF Elfsborg – Örgryte IS
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- IF Elfsborg
- 58%
- Draw
- 24%
- Örgryte IS
- 18%
| IF Elfsborg | Draw | Örgryte IS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 4.23 | 5.46 |
- Total goals
- 3.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans IF Elfsborg
58% IF Elfsborg to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 14th
- IF Elfsborg attack v Örgryte IS defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 16th
- IF Elfsborg defence v Örgryte IS attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.71 vs -1.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.14 – 1.22
- IF Elfsborg v Örgryte IS
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | IF Elfsborg | Örgryte IS |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.65 · 8th | 1.26 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.51 · 7th | 2.26 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.15 · 8th | -0.99 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.49 · 8th | 0.87 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.71 | -1.51 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- IF Elfsborg clean sheet
- 27%
- IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:1
- 10.8%
- 3:1
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IF Elfsborg sample
- 20 matches
- Örgryte IS sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · IF Elfsborg
- 8 matches
- Away xG sample · Örgryte IS
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.