Thursday, 29/10/2026 at 19:00
25d 19h to kick-offÖrgryte IS – Mjällby AIF
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Örgryte IS
- 34%
- Draw
- 26%
- Mjällby AIF
- 40%
| Örgryte IS | Draw | Mjällby AIF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.94 | 3.91 | 2.47 |
- Total goals
- 3.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 74%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Mjällby AIF
40% Mjällby AIF to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 14th
- Mjällby AIF attack v Örgryte IS defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 16th
- Mjällby AIF defence v Örgryte IS attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.22 vs -1.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.86
- Örgryte IS v Mjällby AIF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Örgryte IS | Mjällby AIF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.26 · 14th | (better) 1.59 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 2.26 · 14th | (better) 2.07 · 13th |
| xGD / match | -0.99 · 15th | (better) -0.48 · 12th |
| xPts / match | 0.87 · 15th | (better) 1.08 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.51 | (better) -1.22 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Mjällby AIF clean sheet
- 16%
- Mjällby AIF 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
- 2:2
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Örgryte IS sample
- 20 matches
- Mjällby AIF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Örgryte IS
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Mjällby AIF
- 8 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.