Djurgårdens IF 1:2 IF Elfsborg: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Djurgårdens IF Home 1.40 xG

IF Elfsborg Away 1.68 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Djurgårdens IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. IF Elfsborg won 2–1. The biggest difference was Djurgårdens IF's attack: 1.40 xG against 1.93 projected (−0.53). IF Elfsborg produced 1.68 xG against 1.20 projected (+0.48).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Djurgårdens IF: 53%
Draw: 26%
IF Elfsborg: 21% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Djurgårdens IF 1.93 1.40 -0.53

IF Elfsborg 1.20 1.68 +0.48

Djurgårdens IF produced 0.53 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Djurgårdens IF IF Elfsborg

Shots: 9; 15
On target: 2; 3
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Djurgårdens IF

2.45 xG created 0.93 xGA

D 0.73 created, 0.77 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.13 created, 1.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 3.93 created, 1.32 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.64 created, 0.67 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.26 created, 1.49 conceded against AIK
W 3.00 created, 0.17 conceded against Mjällby AIF

IF Elfsborg

1.88 xG created 1.29 xGA

W 0.92 created, 1.28 conceded against Malmö FF
W 3.47 created, 1.87 conceded against Mjällby AIF
W 2.19 created, 0.99 conceded against Västerås SK
W 1.63 created, 0.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
L 0.98 created, 1.51 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
W 2.11 created, 1.88 conceded against Kalmar FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Djurgårdens IF: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged6 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Djurgårdens IF against IF Elfsborg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals	3.50	+20.5%	Won
IF Elfsborg to win	5.50	+14.7%	Won
Both teams to score	1.70	+10.9%	Won
IF Elfsborg to score	1.50	+9.3%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	+3.2%	Won
Draw	4.00	+2.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+1.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Djurgårdens IF	53.4%	59.6%	−6.1 pp	1.87
Draw	25.7%	23.4%	+2.3 pp	3.89
IF Elfsborg	20.9%	17.0%	+3.8 pp	4.80

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Djurgårdens IF to score	87.6%	85.4%	+2.2 pp	1.14
Djurgårdens IF not to score	12.4%	14.6%	−2.2 pp	8.06
IF Elfsborg to score	72.9%	62.5%	+10.4 pp	1.37
IF Elfsborg not to score	27.1%	37.5%	−10.4 pp	3.69
Both teams to score	65.2%	54.7%	+10.6 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.8%	45.3%	−10.6 pp	2.88
Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals	59.5%	58.9%	+0.6 pp	1.68
Djurgårdens IF at most 1 goal	40.5%	41.1%	−0.6 pp	2.47
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals	34.4%	26.9%	+7.6 pp	2.90
IF Elfsborg at most 1 goal	65.6%	73.1%	−7.6 pp	1.53
Over 1.5 goals	85.6%	79.2%	+6.5 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.4%	20.8%	−6.5 pp	6.97
Over 2.5 goals	62.5%	57.1%	+5.4 pp	1.60
Under 2.5 goals	37.5%	42.9%	−5.4 pp	2.67

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Djurgårdens IF sample: 20 matches
IF Elfsborg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.