IFK Göteborg 2:1 Halmstads BK: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

IFK Göteborg Home 1.76 xG

Halmstads BK Away 1.42 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

IFK Göteborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was IFK Göteborg's attack: 1.76 xG against 2.76 projected (−1.00).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IFK Göteborg: 67% What happened
Draw: 18%
Halmstads BK: 14%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IFK Göteborg 2.76 1.76 -1.00

Halmstads BK 1.38 1.42 +0.04

IFK Göteborg produced 1.00 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IFK Göteborg Halmstads BK

Shots: 15; 9
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IFK Göteborg

2.28 xG created 1.51 xGA

W 3.80 created, 0.49 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 1.85 created, 2.97 conceded against IK Sirius
W 2.21 created, 1.92 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.71 created, 0.99 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.13 created, 1.69 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.01 created, 0.98 conceded against Örgryte IS

Halmstads BK

1.31 xG created 2.76 xGA

L 0.97 created, 3.10 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.90 created, 3.81 conceded against GAIS
L 1.21 created, 2.78 conceded against BK Häcken
D 2.67 created, 2.09 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.31 created, 1.94 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 0.80 created, 2.83 conceded against Degerfors IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IFK Göteborg: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IFK Göteborg against Halmstads BK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.70	+26.6%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+23.5%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+9.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IFK Göteborg	67.1%	64.8%	+2.3 pp	1.49
Draw	18.4%	20.8%	−2.4 pp	5.42
Halmstads BK	14.5%	14.4%	+0.1 pp	6.91

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	74.5%	54.7%	+19.8 pp	1.34
Both teams not to score	25.5%	45.3%	−19.8 pp	3.92
Over 1.5 goals	94.2%	81.1%	+13.1 pp	1.06
Under 1.5 goals	5.8%	18.9%	−13.1 pp	17.19
Over 2.5 goals	80.5%	61.0%	+19.5 pp	1.24
Under 2.5 goals	19.5%	39.0%	−19.5 pp	5.14

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IFK Göteborg sample: 20 matches
Halmstads BK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.