xgEdge

Expected goals

Malmö FF expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Allsvenskan · after 18 matches · updated 1 Oct

Malmö FF's attacking and defensive expected goals in Allsvenskan 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Malmö FF xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.04 xG per match
#4/16
Attack (xG per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Hammarby IF 2.66
#2 Djurgårdens IF 2.30
#3 IK Sirius 2.13
#4 Malmö FF 2.04
#5 IFK Göteborg 1.95
#6 BK Häcken 1.84
#7 GAIS 1.75
#8 IF Elfsborg 1.65
#9 Västerås SK 1.64
#10 Mjällby AIF 1.59
#11 AIK 1.57
#12 IF Brommapojkarna 1.45
#13 Kalmar FF 1.31
#14 Örgryte IS 1.26
#15 Degerfors IF 1.26
#16 Halmstads BK 1.10
League avg
1.71
Total
36.75 18 matches
Defence
1.50 xGA per match
#6/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Hammarby IF 1.11
#2 Djurgårdens IF 1.15
#3 IK Sirius 1.34
#4 GAIS 1.34
#5 BK Häcken 1.38
#6 Malmö FF 1.50
#7 IF Elfsborg 1.51
#8 IFK Göteborg 1.63
#9 Kalmar FF 1.74
#10 Degerfors IF 1.76
#11 IF Brommapojkarna 1.80
#12 Västerås SK 1.91
#13 Mjällby AIF 2.07
#14 Örgryte IS 2.26
#15 AIK 2.29
#16 Halmstads BK 2.41
League avg
1.71
Total
27.05 18 matches
xG difference
+0.54 xGD per match
#4/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Hammarby IF +1.54
#2 Djurgårdens IF +1.16
#3 IK Sirius +0.79
#4 Malmö FF +0.54
#5 BK Häcken +0.46
#6 GAIS +0.41
#7 IFK Göteborg +0.32
#8 IF Elfsborg +0.15
#9 Västerås SK -0.27
#10 IF Brommapojkarna -0.35
#11 Kalmar FF -0.43
#12 Mjällby AIF -0.48
#13 Degerfors IF -0.51
#14 AIK -0.72
#15 Örgryte IS -0.99
#16 Halmstads BK -1.31
League avg
0.00
Total
+9.70 18 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.67 xPts per match
#5/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Hammarby IF 2.24
#2 Djurgårdens IF 2.05
#3 IK Sirius 1.84
#4 BK Häcken 1.70
#5 Malmö FF 1.67
#6 GAIS 1.61
#7 IFK Göteborg 1.60
#8 IF Elfsborg 1.49
#9 IF Brommapojkarna 1.23
#10 Kalmar FF 1.21
#11 Västerås SK 1.21
#12 Degerfors IF 1.09
#13 Mjällby AIF 1.08
#14 AIK 1.00
#15 Örgryte IS 0.87
#16 Halmstads BK 0.61
League avg
1.40
Total
30.12 vs 33 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 18 of 22 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Malmö FF's underlying numbers are among the best in Allsvenskan. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.54 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 35 goals are 1.75 below 36.75 xG, while 28 points are 2.12 below 30.12 xPts — both over the 18 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
35 36.75 -1.75 scored 1.75 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
29 27.05 +1.95 conceded 1.95 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
28 30.12 -2.12 2.12 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Malmö FF are 1.75 goals below their xG after 18 matches.

Goals
35
xG
36.75
Gap
-1.75
Sun 12/04 Fri 17/04 Thu 23/04 Sun 03/05 Sun 10/05 Sun 17/05 Sun 24/05 Sat 30/05 Sat 04/07 Sun 12/07 Mon 20/07 Sun 26/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Mon 31/08 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +1.28 +2.03 +3.12 +2.03 +2.61 +2.57 +3.23 +4.99 +2.18 +2.88 +3.33 +3.05 +1.83 +0.30 +1.08 +0.31 +1.07 -1.75 +1.28 +0.75 +1.09 -1.09 +0.58 -0.04 +0.66 +1.76 -2.81 +0.70 +0.45 -0.28 -1.22 -1.53 +0.78 -0.77 +0.76 -2.82 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Malmö FF: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 12/04 GAIS 3 1.72 +1.28 +1.28
Fri 17/04 Djurgårdens IF 1 0.25 +0.75 +2.03
Thu 23/04 IK Sirius 2 0.91 +1.09 +3.12
Sun 03/05 Mjällby AIF 2 3.09 -1.09 +2.03
Sun 10/05 BK Häcken 2 1.42 +0.58 +2.61
Sun 17/05 Hammarby IF 1 1.04 -0.04 +2.57
Sun 24/05 Västerås SK 2 1.34 +0.66 +3.23
Sat 30/05 Halmstads BK 5 3.24 +1.76 +4.99
Sat 04/07 Degerfors IF 1 3.81 -2.81 +2.18
Sun 12/07 IFK Göteborg 4 3.30 +0.70 +2.88
Mon 20/07 Kalmar FF 2 1.55 +0.45 +3.33
Sun 26/07 IF Elfsborg 1 1.28 -0.28 +3.05
Sun 02/08 IF Brommapojkarna 2 3.22 -1.22 +1.83
Sun 09/08 Degerfors IF 1 2.53 -1.53 +0.30
Sun 16/08 GAIS 1 0.22 +0.78 +1.08
Mon 31/08 IK Sirius 1 1.77 -0.77 +0.31
Sun 13/09 Örgryte IS 4 3.24 +0.76 +1.07
Sat 19/09 Västerås SK 0 2.82 -2.82 -1.75

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Malmö FF xG trend

Current form +1.05 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 13 of 18 matches. The worst was against Hammarby IF on Sun 17/05 (-2.58).

npxG · last 6
2.30
npxGA · last 6
1.25
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.37 Sun 12/04 -0.79 Fri 17/04 -0.99 Thu 23/04 +1.28 Sun 03/05 -0.95 Sun 10/05 -2.58 Sun 17/05 +0.44 Sun 24/05 +1.59 Sat 30/05 +2.88 Sat 04/07 +1.49 Sun 12/07 +0.32 Mon 20/07 +0.36 Sun 26/07 +1.49 Sun 02/08 +1.83 Sun 09/08 -1.13 Sun 16/08 +0.05 Mon 31/08 +1.93 Sun 13/09 +2.11 Sat 19/09 +0.54 season avg
Malmö FF: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 12/04 GAIS 1.72 1.35 +0.37 +0.37
Fri 17/04 Djurgårdens IF 0.25 1.04 -0.79 -0.21
Thu 23/04 IK Sirius 0.91 1.90 -0.99 -0.47
Sun 03/05 Mjällby AIF 3.09 1.81 +1.28 -0.03
Sun 10/05 BK Häcken 1.42 2.37 -0.95 -0.22
Sun 17/05 Hammarby IF 1.04 3.62 -2.58 -0.61
Sun 24/05 Västerås SK 1.34 0.90 +0.44 -0.46
Sat 30/05 Halmstads BK 3.24 1.65 +1.59 -0.20
Sat 04/07 Degerfors IF 3.81 0.93 +2.88 +0.14
Sun 12/07 IFK Göteborg 3.30 1.81 +1.49 +0.27
Mon 20/07 Kalmar FF 1.55 1.23 +0.32 +0.28
Sun 26/07 IF Elfsborg 1.28 0.92 +0.36 +0.29
Sun 02/08 IF Brommapojkarna 3.22 1.73 +1.49 +0.38
Sun 09/08 Degerfors IF 2.53 0.70 +1.83 +0.48
Sun 16/08 GAIS 0.22 1.35 -1.13 +0.37
Mon 31/08 IK Sirius 1.77 1.72 +0.05 +0.35
Sun 13/09 Örgryte IS 3.24 1.31 +1.93 +0.45
Sat 19/09 Västerås SK 2.82 0.71 +2.11 +0.54

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.04 npxG and 1.50 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 13 hardest of 16 in Allsvenskan
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 22 league matches
Last 5
number 13 hardest of 16 in Allsvenskan
−0.13 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 22 matches · number 13 hardest of 16

  1. Västerås SK Away −0.18
  2. Örgryte IS Home −0.67
  3. AIK Home −0.44
  4. IK Sirius Away +0.19
  5. Djurgårdens IF Home +0.46
  6. GAIS Away +0.23
  7. Degerfors IF Home −0.27
  8. IF Brommapojkarna Away −0.32
  9. IF Elfsborg Home +0.10
  10. Kalmar FF Away −0.15
  11. IFK Göteborg Home +0.20
  12. Degerfors IF Away −0.27
  13. Halmstads BK Home −0.78
  14. Västerås SK Home −0.18
  15. Hammarby IF Away +1.29
  16. BK Häcken Away +0.26
  17. Mjällby AIF Home −0.36
  18. AIK Away −0.44
  19. IK Sirius Home +0.19
  20. Djurgårdens IF Away +0.46
  21. GAIS Home +0.23
  22. Örgryte IS Away −0.67

Last 5

−0.13 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 13 hardest of 16

  1. Västerås SK Away −0.18
  2. Örgryte IS Home −0.67
  3. AIK Home −0.44
  4. IK Sirius Away +0.19
  5. Djurgårdens IF Home +0.46

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Malmö FF shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. Malmö FF take 14.9 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.14 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #4 in Allsvenskan for volume and #3 for quality. 70% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.9 shots per match
#4/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Hammarby IF 21.9
#2 IFK Göteborg 17.1
#3 Djurgårdens IF 15.7
#4 Malmö FF 14.9
#5 IK Sirius 14.9
#6 GAIS 14.5
#7 BK Häcken 14.2
#8 Kalmar FF 13.4
#9 Mjällby AIF 13.0
#10 AIK 12.9
#11 IF Elfsborg 12.8
#12 Halmstads BK 12.5
#13 Västerås SK 12.1
#14 IF Brommapojkarna 11.7
#15 Degerfors IF 11.1
#16 Örgryte IS 10.5
League avg
13.9
Total
269 shots from 18 matches
Chance quality
0.14 npxG per shot
#3/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Djurgårdens IF 0.15
#2 IK Sirius 0.14
#3 Malmö FF 0.14
#4 Västerås SK 0.14
#5 IF Elfsborg 0.13
#6 BK Häcken 0.13
#7 IF Brommapojkarna 0.12
#8 Mjällby AIF 0.12
#9 AIK 0.12
#10 Hammarby IF 0.12
#11 GAIS 0.12
#12 Örgryte IS 0.12
#13 IFK Göteborg 0.11
#14 Degerfors IF 0.11
#15 Kalmar FF 0.10
#16 Halmstads BK 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
36.75 npxG from 269 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.9 shots per match
#7/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Hammarby IF 8.6
#2 Djurgårdens IF 10.9
#3 BK Häcken 11.5
#4 IFK Göteborg 12.4
#5 GAIS 12.4
#6 IF Elfsborg 12.5
#7 Malmö FF 12.9
#8 IK Sirius 13.8
#9 Degerfors IF 13.9
#10 Kalmar FF 14.3
#11 Västerås SK 14.8
#12 IF Brommapojkarna 15.7
#13 Mjällby AIF 16.2
#14 AIK 16.5
#15 Halmstads BK 17.5
#16 Örgryte IS 17.9
League avg
13.9
Total
233 shots allowed from 18 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#5/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Allsvenskan, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 IK Sirius 0.10
#2 Djurgårdens IF 0.11
#3 GAIS 0.11
#4 IF Brommapojkarna 0.11
#5 Malmö FF 0.12
#6 BK Häcken 0.12
#7 IF Elfsborg 0.12
#8 Kalmar FF 0.12
#9 Örgryte IS 0.13
#10 Degerfors IF 0.13
#11 Mjällby AIF 0.13
#12 Hammarby IF 0.13
#13 Västerås SK 0.13
#14 IFK Göteborg 0.13
#15 Halmstads BK 0.14
#16 AIK 0.14
League avg
0.12
Total
27.05 npxGA from 233 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

70% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 189 of 269 shots over 18 matches

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 151 of 233 shots allowed over 18 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Malmö FF home and away xG

Malmö FF per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 11 9 with xG 11 9 with xG
xG / match 2.29 1.79
xGA / match 1.37 1.63
xGD / match +0.92 +0.16
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.95 1.40

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Malmö FF match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
22 18 with xG
xG / match
2.04
xGA / match
1.50
xGD / match
+0.54
Points
33 of 66
  1. Sat 19/09 Västerås SK A Against the chances xG 2.82 xGA 0.71 xGD +2.11
  2. Sun 13/09 Örgryte IS H xG 3.24 xGA 1.31 xGD +1.93
  3. Mon 07/09 AIK H
  4. Mon 31/08 IK Sirius A xG 1.77 xGA 1.72 xGD +0.05
  5. Mon 24/08 Djurgårdens IF H
  6. Sun 16/08 GAIS A Against the chances xG 0.22 xGA 1.35 xGD -1.13
  7. Sun 09/08 Degerfors IF H Against the chances xG 2.53 xGA 0.70 xGD +1.83
  8. Sun 02/08 IF Brommapojkarna A xG 3.22 xGA 1.73 xGD +1.49
  9. Sun 26/07 IF Elfsborg H xG 1.28 xGA 0.92 xGD +0.36
  10. Mon 20/07 Kalmar FF A xG 1.55 xGA 1.23 xGD +0.32
  11. Sun 12/07 IFK Göteborg H xG 3.30 xGA 1.81 xGD +1.49
  12. Sat 04/07 Degerfors IF A Best underlying xG 3.81 xGA 0.93 xGD +2.88
  13. Sat 30/05 Halmstads BK H xG 3.24 xGA 1.65 xGD +1.59
  14. Sun 24/05 Västerås SK H xG 1.34 xGA 0.90 xGD +0.44
  15. Sun 17/05 Hammarby IF A Weakest underlying xG 1.04 xGA 3.62 xGD -2.58
  16. Sun 10/05 BK Häcken A xG 1.42 xGA 2.37 xGD -0.95
  17. Sun 03/05 Mjällby AIF H Against the chances xG 3.09 xGA 1.81 xGD +1.28
  18. Mon 27/04 AIK A
  19. Thu 23/04 IK Sirius H xG 0.91 xGA 1.90 xGD -0.99
  20. Fri 17/04 Djurgårdens IF A xG 0.25 xGA 1.04 xGD -0.79
  21. Sun 12/04 GAIS H xG 1.72 xGA 1.35 xGD +0.37
  22. Sun 05/04 Örgryte IS A

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.81. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Malmö FF in Allsvenskan

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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