Austria Wien 2:1 SC Austria Lustenau: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Austria Wien Home 1.52 xG · 15 shots

SC Austria Lustenau Away 1.48 xG · 13 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Austria Wien were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was SC Austria Lustenau's attack: 1.48 xG against 1.12 projected (+0.36).

Goals

47' Dominik Weixelbraun SC Austria Lustenau · 0.49 xG chance 0–1
81' Julian Hettwer Austria Wien · 0.33 xG chance 1–1
90' Kelvin Boateng Austria Wien · 0.17 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Austria Wien: 38% What happened
Draw: 32%
SC Austria Lustenau: 29%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Austria Wien 1.29 1.52 +0.23

SC Austria Lustenau 1.12 1.48 +0.36

SC Austria Lustenau produced 0.36 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Austria Wien SC Austria Lustenau

Shots: 15; 13
On target: 5; 5
Inside the box: 14; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.90; 1.29
Set-piece xG: 0.62; 0.19
Penalties: —; —

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.00 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Austria Wien
SC Austria Lustenau
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Austria Wien

0.59 xG created 2.10 xGA

L 0.74 created, 1.90 conceded against LASK
L 0.35 created, 2.80 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
L 0.21 created, 3.71 conceded against LASK
W 0.99 created, 0.79 conceded against TSV Hartberg
L 0.76 created, 1.71 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 0.51 created, 1.69 conceded against WSG Tirol

SC Austria Lustenau

1.27 xG created 2.12 xGA

D 0.78 created, 2.92 conceded against SV Ried
L 0.56 created, 1.65 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
W 3.13 created, 1.33 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
D 0.96 created, 2.12 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 0.93 created, 2.60 conceded against WSG Tirol

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Austria Wien against SC Austria Lustenau before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Austria Lustenau to win	4.33	+27.5%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+25.6%	Lost
Austria Wien not to score	5.00	+23.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	+15.7%	Lost
Austria Wien at most 1 goal	1.83	+13.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+4.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Austria Wien	38.4%	54.0%	−15.6 pp	2.61
Draw	32.2%	24.2%	+8.0 pp	3.10
SC Austria Lustenau	29.4%	21.8%	+7.6 pp	3.40

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Austria Wien to score	75.3%	81.1%	−5.8 pp	1.33
Austria Wien not to score	24.7%	18.9%	+5.8 pp	4.05
SC Austria Lustenau to score	70.4%	66.3%	+4.2 pp	1.42
SC Austria Lustenau not to score	29.6%	33.7%	−4.2 pp	3.38
Both teams to score	54.9%	54.7%	+0.3 pp	1.82
Both teams not to score	45.1%	45.3%	−0.3 pp	2.22
Austria Wien 2+ goals	37.9%	50.0%	−12.1 pp	2.64
Austria Wien at most 1 goal	62.1%	50.0%	+12.1 pp	1.61
SC Austria Lustenau 2+ goals	31.1%	31.3%	−0.2 pp	3.22
SC Austria Lustenau at most 1 goal	68.9%	68.7%	+0.2 pp	1.45
Over 1.5 goals	73.8%	76.6%	−2.8 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	26.2%	23.4%	+2.8 pp	3.82
Over 2.5 goals	44.2%	54.6%	−10.3 pp	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	55.8%	45.4%	+10.3 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Austria Wien sample: 20 matches
SC Austria Lustenau sample: 5 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

SC Austria Lustenau has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.