Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeGrazer AK 1902 2:2 Austria Wien
Grazer AK 1902 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Grazer AK 1902's attack: 0.80 xG against 1.21 projected (−0.41).
Goals
- 15' Alexander Hofleitner Grazer AK 1902 · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Manfred Fischer Austria Wien · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
- 55' Jacob Italiano Grazer AK 1902 · 0.14 xG chance 2–1
- 81' Lee Kang-hee Austria Wien · 0.10 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Grazer AK 1902
- 38%
- Draw
- 33% What happened
- Austria Wien
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Grazer AK 1902 produced 0.41 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 11
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 6
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.40
- 0.42
- Set-piece xG
- 0.42
- 0.37
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.80 for Grazer AK 1902 and 0.81 for Austria Wien.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 1.61 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Grazer AK 1902
- Austria Wien
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.20 xG created 1.91 xGA
- L 0.99 created, 2.31 conceded against LASK
- W 1.65 created, 0.56 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
- L 0.76 created, 5.49 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- L 1.24 created, 1.75 conceded against SV Ried
- D 2.14 created, 0.09 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- W 0.39 created, 1.24 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
0.72 xG created 2.03 xGA
- L 0.35 created, 2.80 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- L 0.21 created, 3.71 conceded against LASK
- W 0.99 created, 0.79 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- L 0.76 created, 1.71 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
- L 0.51 created, 1.69 conceded against WSG Tirol
- W 1.52 created, 1.48 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +12.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +10.4% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.50 | +5.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK 1902 | 38.0% | 35.9% | +2.1 pp | 2.63 |
| Draw | 33.4% | 28.3% | +5.2 pp | 2.99 |
| Austria Wien | 28.6% | 35.9% | −7.3 pp | 3.50 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 53.3% | −2.2 pp | 1.96 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.9% | 46.7% | +2.2 pp | 2.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | 73.1% | −3.2 pp | 1.43 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 26.9% | +3.2 pp | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 48.7% | −9.3 pp | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 51.3% | +9.3 pp | 1.65 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Grazer AK 1902 sample
- 20 matches
- Austria Wien sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.