Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 15h to kick-offGrazer AK 1902 – Red Bull Salzburg
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Grazer AK 1902
- 19%
- Draw
- 27%
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 54%
| Grazer AK 1902 | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.14 | 3.76 | 1.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Grazer AK 1902
- Model
- 19.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 15.5%
- Probability gap
- +4.0 pp
- Edge
- +16.8%
- Fair odds
- 5.14
- Market odds
- 6.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.39
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.6%
- Probability gap
- +6.0 pp
- Edge
- +19.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.76
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.94
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
Red Bull Salzburg
- Model
- 53.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 63.9%
- Probability gap
- −10.0 pp
- Edge
- −21.8%
- Fair odds
- 1.85
- Market odds
- 1.45 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.95
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
Outcomes with value
Red Bull Salzburg not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Red Bull Salzburg at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Grazer AK 1902 to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Grazer AK 1902 to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Red Bull Salzburg not to score
Model 13.7% vs. bookmaker 10.6%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Red Bull Salzburg
54% Red Bull Salzburg to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 8th
- Red Bull Salzburg attack v Grazer AK 1902 defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 8th
- Red Bull Salzburg defence v Grazer AK 1902 attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs -0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.09 – 1.83
- Grazer AK 1902 v Red Bull Salzburg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Grazer AK 1902 | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.14 · 9th | (better) 2.68 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.75 · 7th | (better) 1.08 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.61 · 8th | (better) +1.60 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 8th | (better) 2.33 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.50 | (better) +1.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet
- 31%
- Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 1:2
- 11.6%
- 0:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Grazer AK 1902 sample
- 20 matches
- Red Bull Salzburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Grazer AK 1902
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Red Bull Salzburg
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.