Friday, 16/10/2026 at 19:30
12d 19h to kick-offSK Rapid Wien – TSV Hartberg
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SK Rapid Wien
- 62%
- Draw
- 25%
- TSV Hartberg
- 13%
| SK Rapid Wien | Draw | TSV Hartberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.61 | 4.02 | 7.68 |
- Total goals
- 2.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SK Rapid Wien
62% SK Rapid Wien to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 11th
- SK Rapid Wien attack v TSV Hartberg defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 12th
- SK Rapid Wien defence v TSV Hartberg attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs -0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.89 – 0.83
- SK Rapid Wien v TSV Hartberg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SK Rapid Wien | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.26 · 3rd | 1.01 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.10 · 3rd | 2.02 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.16 · 3rd | -1.01 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.95 · 3rd | 0.79 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.30 | -0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- SK Rapid Wien clean sheet
- 41%
- SK Rapid Wien 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 2:0
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Rapid Wien sample
- 20 matches
- TSV Hartberg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SK Rapid Wien
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · TSV Hartberg
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.