Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:30
Full timeTSV Hartberg 3:3 LASK
LASK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 66%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was LASK's attack: 1.82 xG against 2.09 projected (−0.27).
Goals
- 7' Sascha Horvath LASK · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
- 30' Christoph Lang LASK · 0.05 xG chance 0–2
- 46' Andrija Radulović TSV Hartberg · 0.09 xG chance 1–2
- 58' Andrés Andrade LASK · 0.18 xG chance 1–3
- 72' Andrija Radulović TSV Hartberg · 0.06 xG chance 2–3
- 77' Jed Drew TSV Hartberg · 0.10 xG chance 3–3
The model against the result
- TSV Hartberg
- 11%
- Draw
- 22% What happened
- LASK
- 66%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
LASK produced 0.27 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 17
- On target
- 3
- 7
- Inside the box
- 4
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.52
- 1.35
- Set-piece xG
- 0.01
- 0.41
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.53 for TSV Hartberg and 1.80 for LASK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 2.29 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- TSV Hartberg
- LASK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.08 xG created 2.06 xGA
- L 0.73 created, 4.11 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
- L 0.22 created, 2.20 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- L 0.79 created, 0.99 conceded against Austria Wien
- W 1.22 created, 1.91 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- W 2.78 created, 1.67 conceded against SV Ried
- D 0.71 created, 1.47 conceded against WSG Tirol
2.66 xG created 0.99 xGA
- W 2.31 created, 0.99 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- W 3.71 created, 0.21 conceded against Austria Wien
- W 2.32 created, 0.76 conceded against SV Ried
- W 2.88 created, 0.28 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- W 2.79 created, 0.27 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- L 1.94 created, 3.40 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.50 | +23.0% | Won |
| TSV Hartberg to win | 10.00 | +11.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | +10.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +3.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Hartberg | 11.1% | 9.4% | +1.7 pp | 8.98 |
| Draw | 22.4% | 17.2% | +5.2 pp | 4.47 |
| LASK | 66.5% | 73.4% | −6.9 pp | 1.50 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 50.0% | +4.3 pp | 1.84 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.7% | 50.0% | −4.3 pp | 2.19 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | 84.2% | −1.7 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.5% | 15.8% | +1.7 pp | 5.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 63.8% | −6.3 pp | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | 36.2% | +6.3 pp | 2.35 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- TSV Hartberg sample
- 20 matches
- LASK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.