WSG Tirol 2:2 TSV Hartberg: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

WSG Tirol Home 1.47 xG · 16 shots

TSV Hartberg Away 0.71 xG · 5 shots

22 WSG Tirol had the better chances, but it finished level

WSG Tirol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. It finished 2–2. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

14' Oliver Lukić TSV Hartberg · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
44' Marco Hoffmann TSV Hartberg · 0.44 xG chance 0–2
72' Lukas Hinterseer WSG Tirol · 0.09 xG chance 1–2
90' Murat Satin (pen.) WSG Tirol · 0.82 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

WSG Tirol: 51%
Draw: 30% What happened
TSV Hartberg: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

WSG Tirol 1.55 1.47 -0.08

TSV Hartberg 0.92 0.71 -0.21

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

WSG Tirol TSV Hartberg

Shots: 16; 5
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 9; 4
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.29; 0.05
Set-piece xG: 0.38; 0.64
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.68 for WSG Tirol and 0.71 for TSV Hartberg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.18 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

WSG Tirol
TSV Hartberg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

WSG Tirol

1.52 xG created 1.66 xGA

L 0.30 created, 1.26 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
D 0.87 created, 2.32 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 0.84 created, 1.48 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
L 2.81 created, 3.47 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
W 2.60 created, 0.93 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
W 1.69 created, 0.51 conceded against Austria Wien

TSV Hartberg

1.13 xG created 2.12 xGA

W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 0.73 created, 4.11 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 0.22 created, 2.20 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 0.79 created, 0.99 conceded against Austria Wien
W 1.22 created, 1.91 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
W 2.78 created, 1.67 conceded against SV Ried

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

WSG Tirol: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on WSG Tirol against TSV Hartberg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
TSV Hartberg not to score	3.40	+25.6%	Lost
TSV Hartberg at most 1 goal	1.50	+15.4%	Lost
WSG Tirol to win	2.15	+9.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+8.3%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.25	+5.4%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
WSG Tirol	51.1%	43.6%	+7.5 pp	1.96
Draw	29.7%	27.6%	+2.1 pp	3.37
TSV Hartberg	19.2%	28.8%	−9.6 pp	5.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
WSG Tirol to score	81.5%	79.2%	+2.3 pp	1.23
WSG Tirol not to score	18.5%	20.8%	−2.3 pp	5.40
TSV Hartberg to score	63.1%	72.3%	−9.3 pp	1.59
TSV Hartberg not to score	36.9%	27.7%	+9.3 pp	2.71
Both teams to score	53.1%	58.9%	−5.7 pp	1.88
Both teams not to score	46.9%	41.1%	+5.7 pp	2.13
WSG Tirol 2+ goals	47.5%	48.5%	−1.1 pp	2.11
WSG Tirol at most 1 goal	52.5%	51.5%	+1.1 pp	1.90
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals	23.0%	37.5%	−14.5 pp	4.34
TSV Hartberg at most 1 goal	77.0%	62.5%	+14.5 pp	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	75.0%	−0.0 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	25.0%	+0.0 pp	3.99
Over 2.5 goals	45.8%	52.6%	−6.8 pp	2.18
Under 2.5 goals	54.2%	47.4%	+6.8 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
WSG Tirol sample: 20 matches
TSV Hartberg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.