SK Sturm Graz's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Results
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses
7 pts 4–2 goals +2 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 7.05 – 4.34
- 2.35 – 1.45 per match
- xGD
- +2.71
- +0.90 per match
- xG record
- 2 with the chances, 1 with even chances, 0 against them
Small sample: 3 matches.
Comparable xG: 3 of 3 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
7 pts 5.9 xPts
+1.1 vs xPts
Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Season · All competitions · Home
SK Sturm Graz's winning record is broadly supported by the chances at both ends. They out-created the opponent in 3 of 3 matches, for +2.71 xG difference overall on 7.05–4.34. Their points total of 7 sits 1.1 above the model's 5.9 xPts, so the results have clearly outrun the chances.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 3 results SK Sturm Graz are 1.11 points above their xPts. The gap was widest at +1.58, against SC Rheindorf Altach on Sat 15/08.
- Points
- 7
- xPts
- 5.89
- Gap
- +1.11
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 15/08 | SC Rheindorf Altach | 3 | 1.42 | +1.58 | +1.58 |
| Sat 22/08 | SC Austria Lustenau | 1 | 2.24 | -1.24 | +0.34 |
| Sun 13/09 | LASK | 3 | 2.23 | +0.77 | +1.11 |
Scores and xG
SK Sturm Graz first
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Match analysis →
Why this label · LASK, Sun 13/09
The team won and had a positive xG difference. The chances support the direction of the result, without making a judgment about fairness.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 2.24
- Points minus xPts
- +0.76
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · SC Austria Lustenau, Sat 22/08
The match was drawn although the team recorded a positive xG difference. The outcome was weaker than that chance advantage suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 2.23
- Points minus xPts
- -1.23
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · SC Rheindorf Altach, Sat 15/08
The team won, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was stronger than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.42
- Points minus xPts
- +1.58
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.