Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:30
6d 13h to kick-off1. FC Union Berlin – SV 07 Elversberg
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 44%
- Draw
- 27%
- SV 07 Elversberg
- 29%
| 1. FC Union Berlin | Draw | SV 07 Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.29 | 3.66 | 3.44 |
- Total goals
- 3.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
1. FC Union Berlin
- Model
- 43.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.2%
- Probability gap
- +1.4 pp
- Edge
- −4.1%
- Fair odds
- 2.29
- Market odds
- 2.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.41
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.8%
- Probability gap
- +1.5 pp
- Edge
- −1.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.66
- Market odds
- 3.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
-
SV 07 Elversberg
- Model
- 29.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 32.0%
- Probability gap
- −2.9 pp
- Edge
- −15.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.44
- Market odds
- 2.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.61
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.7%
Outcomes with value
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans 1. FC Union Berlin
44% 1. FC Union Berlin to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 17th
- 1. FC Union Berlin attack v SV 07 Elversberg defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 11th
- 1. FC Union Berlin defence v SV 07 Elversberg attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.35 vs -0.64
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.74 – 1.42
- 1. FC Union Berlin v SV 07 Elversberg
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FC Union Berlin | SV 07 Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.13 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 1.38 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.70 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 2.02 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.57 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) -0.64 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.70 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) 0.98 · 13th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.35 | -0.64 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet
- 21%
- 1. FC Union Berlin 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.6%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FC Union Berlin sample
- 20 matches
- SV 07 Elversberg sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FC Union Berlin
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · SV 07 Elversberg
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- SV 07 Elversberg has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.