Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Borussia Dortmund – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Borussia Dortmund
- 39%
- Draw
- 29%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 32%
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.56 | 3.41 | 3.16 |
- Total goals
- 2.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
39% Borussia Dortmund to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 3rd
- Borussia Dortmund attack v Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 2nd
- Borussia Dortmund defence v Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs +0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.35
- Borussia Dortmund v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches | 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches | (better) +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches | (better) 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | +0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
- 23%
- Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.