FC St. Pauli 1:1 1. FC Köln: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Friday, 17/04/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli Home 2.01 xG · 13 shots

1. FC Köln Away 1.33 xG · 10 shots

11 FC St. Pauli had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

69' Karol Mets FC St. Pauli · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
86' Luca Waldschmidt (pen.) 1. FC Köln · 0.82 xG chance 1–1

The shots behind it

FC St. Pauli 1. FC Köln

Shots: 13; 10
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 9; 6
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.65; 0.39
Set-piece xG: 1.16; 0.11
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.79 for FC St. Pauli and 0.50 for 1. FC Köln.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 3.13 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC St. Pauli
1. FC Köln
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC St. Pauli

0.56 xG created 1.94 xGA

W 0.78 created, 2.71 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
D 0.48 created, 0.41 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
L 0.51 created, 0.71 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.76 created, 2.04 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 0.33 created, 1.95 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 0.49 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Bayern München

1. FC Köln

1.81 xG created 1.42 xGA

L 0.48 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Augsburg
L 1.14 created, 1.95 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
D 1.22 created, 0.32 conceded against Hamburger SV
D 1.55 created, 1.30 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
D 3.11 created, 2.34 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 3.33 created, 0.99 conceded against SV Werder Bremen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC St. Pauli: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

1. FC Köln 1:1 FC St. Pauli 06/12/2025 xG 1.66 – 0.14

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.