xgEdge

Expected goals

VfL Wolfsburg expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Bundesliga · after 34 matches · updated 1 Oct

VfL Wolfsburg's attacking and defensive expected goals in Bundesliga 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.39 xG per match
#11/18
Attack (xG per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FC Bayern München 2.95
#2 RB Leipzig 1.95
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.89
#4 Borussia Dortmund 1.86
#5 VfB Stuttgart 1.77
#6 TSG Hoffenheim 1.64
#7 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.62
#8 1. FC Köln 1.51
#9 SC Freiburg 1.42
#10 1. FC Heidenheim 1.40
#11 VfL Wolfsburg 1.39
#12 FC Augsburg 1.36
#13 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35
#14 1. FC Union Berlin 1.34
#15 Borussia M'gladbach 1.25
#16 SV Werder Bremen 1.21
#17 Hamburger SV 1.20
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.89
League avg
1.56
Total
47.39 34 matches
Defence
1.80 xGA per match
#16/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Borussia Dortmund 1.15
#2 FC Bayern München 1.21
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.35
#4 SC Freiburg 1.40
#5 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.46
#6 RB Leipzig 1.48
#7 TSG Hoffenheim 1.48
#8 VfB Stuttgart 1.49
#9 1. FC Union Berlin 1.53
#10 Borussia M'gladbach 1.56
#11 SV Werder Bremen 1.60
#12 1. FC Köln 1.63
#13 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.64
#14 FC St. Pauli 1.68
#15 Hamburger SV 1.78
#16 VfL Wolfsburg 1.80
#17 FC Augsburg 1.87
#18 1. FC Heidenheim 1.88
League avg
1.56
Total
61.26 34 matches
xG difference
-0.41 xGD per match
#14/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FC Bayern München +1.74
#2 Borussia Dortmund +0.71
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.55
#4 RB Leipzig +0.47
#5 VfB Stuttgart +0.28
#6 TSG Hoffenheim +0.15
#7 SC Freiburg +0.03
#8 1. FSV Mainz 05 -0.03
#9 1. FC Köln -0.11
#10 Eintracht Frankfurt -0.11
#11 1. FC Union Berlin -0.20
#12 Borussia M'gladbach -0.31
#13 SV Werder Bremen -0.40
#14 VfL Wolfsburg -0.41
#15 1. FC Heidenheim -0.48
#16 FC Augsburg -0.51
#17 Hamburger SV -0.58
#18 FC St. Pauli -0.80
League avg
0.00
Total
-13.87 34 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.17 xPts per match
#13/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FC Bayern München 2.28
#2 Borussia Dortmund 1.78
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.70
#4 RB Leipzig 1.68
#5 VfB Stuttgart 1.61
#6 TSG Hoffenheim 1.51
#7 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.43
#8 SC Freiburg 1.38
#9 1. FC Union Berlin 1.36
#10 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.32
#11 1. FC Köln 1.27
#12 SV Werder Bremen 1.18
#13 VfL Wolfsburg 1.17
#14 Borussia M'gladbach 1.16
#15 FC Augsburg 1.14
#16 1. FC Heidenheim 1.11
#17 Hamburger SV 1.07
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.87
League avg
1.39
Total
39.83 vs 31 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 34 of 36 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

VfL Wolfsburg's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Bundesliga. They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.41 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 45 goals are 2.39 below 47.39 xG, while 29 points are 10.83 below 39.83 xPts — both over the 34 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.85 xG from penalties
45 47.39 -2.39 scored 2.39 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
69 61.26 +7.74 conceded 7.74 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
29 39.83 -10.83 10.83 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

VfL Wolfsburg are 2.39 goals below their xG after 34 matches.

Goals
45
xG
47.39
Gap
-2.39
Sat 23/08 Sun 31/08 Sat 13/09 Sun 21/09 Sat 27/09 Sat 04/10 Sat 18/10 Sat 25/10 Sun 02/11 Fri 07/11 Sat 22/11 Sun 30/11 Sat 06/12 Sat 13/12 Sat 20/12 Sun 11/01 Wed 14/01 Sat 17/01 Sat 24/01 Fri 30/01 Sat 07/02 Sun 15/02 Sat 21/02 Sun 01/03 Sat 07/03 Sat 14/03 Sat 21/03 Sat 04/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 18/04 Sat 25/04 Sun 03/05 Sat 09/05 Sat 16/05 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.55 +0.93 +2.43 +1.63 -1.42 -1.61 -1.93 -1.30 -0.84 -0.41 -1.54 -2.40 -0.21 +1.07 +2.41 +2.05 +2.17 +2.25 +2.58 +1.31 +0.86 +2.24 +2.65 +1.85 +1.01 +1.74 +0.98 +1.96 +0.63 +2.44 +0.97 +1.15 -1.89 -2.39 +0.55 +0.38 +1.50 -0.80 -3.05 -0.19 -0.32 +0.63 +0.46 +0.43 -1.13 -0.86 +2.19 +1.28 +1.34 -0.36 +0.12 +0.08 +0.33 -1.27 -0.45 +1.38 +0.41 -0.80 -0.84 +0.73 -0.76 +0.98 -1.33 +1.81 -1.47 +0.18 -3.04 -0.50 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
VfL Wolfsburg: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 23/08 1. FC Heidenheim 3 2.45 +0.55 +0.55
Sun 31/08 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 0.62 +0.38 +0.93
Sat 13/09 1. FC Köln 3 1.50 +1.50 +2.43
Sun 21/09 Borussia Dortmund 0 0.80 -0.80 +1.63
Sat 27/09 RB Leipzig 0 3.05 -3.05 -1.42
Sat 04/10 FC Augsburg 1 1.19 -0.19 -1.61
Sat 18/10 VfB Stuttgart 0 0.32 -0.32 -1.93
Sat 25/10 Hamburger SV 1 0.37 +0.63 -1.30
Sun 02/11 TSG Hoffenheim 2 1.54 +0.46 -0.84
Fri 07/11 SV Werder Bremen 1 0.57 +0.43 -0.41
Sat 22/11 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 2.13 -1.13 -1.54
Sun 30/11 Eintracht Frankfurt 1 1.86 -0.86 -2.40
Sat 06/12 1. FC Union Berlin 3 0.81 +2.19 -0.21
Sat 13/12 Borussia M'gladbach 3 1.72 +1.28 +1.07
Sat 20/12 SC Freiburg 3 1.66 +1.34 +2.41
Sun 11/01 FC Bayern München 1 1.36 -0.36 +2.05
Wed 14/01 FC St. Pauli 2 1.88 +0.12 +2.17
Sat 17/01 1. FC Heidenheim 1 0.92 +0.08 +2.25
Sat 24/01 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 0.67 +0.33 +2.58
Fri 30/01 1. FC Köln 0 1.27 -1.27 +1.31
Sat 07/02 Borussia Dortmund 1 1.45 -0.45 +0.86
Sun 15/02 RB Leipzig 2 0.62 +1.38 +2.24
Sat 21/02 FC Augsburg 2 1.59 +0.41 +2.65
Sun 01/03 VfB Stuttgart 0 0.80 -0.80 +1.85
Sat 07/03 Hamburger SV 1 1.84 -0.84 +1.01
Sat 14/03 TSG Hoffenheim 1 0.27 +0.73 +1.74
Sat 21/03 SV Werder Bremen 0 0.76 -0.76 +0.98
Sat 04/04 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 2.02 +0.98 +1.96
Sat 11/04 Eintracht Frankfurt 1 2.33 -1.33 +0.63
Sat 18/04 1. FC Union Berlin 2 0.19 +1.81 +2.44
Sat 25/04 Borussia M'gladbach 0 1.47 -1.47 +0.97
Sun 03/05 SC Freiburg 1 0.82 +0.18 +1.15
Sat 09/05 FC Bayern München 0 3.04 -3.04 -1.89
Sat 16/05 FC St. Pauli 3 3.50 -0.50 -2.39

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

VfL Wolfsburg xG trend

Current form +0.60 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 17 of 34 matches. The worst was against VfB Stuttgart on Sun 01/03 (-2.31).

npxG · last 6
1.81
npxGA · last 6
1.22
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.94 Sat 23/08 -0.55 Sun 31/08 -0.21 Sat 13/09 -0.30 Sun 21/09 +1.59 Sat 27/09 -0.66 Sat 04/10 -1.44 Sat 18/10 -1.67 Sat 25/10 +0.53 Sun 02/11 -0.77 Fri 07/11 +1.12 Sat 22/11 +1.08 Sun 30/11 -0.43 Sat 06/12 +1.02 Sat 13/12 -1.00 Sat 20/12 -1.60 Sun 11/01 -0.18 Wed 14/01 +0.08 Sat 17/01 -1.79 Sat 24/01 +0.03 Fri 30/01 +0.18 Sat 07/02 -2.07 Sun 15/02 +0.60 Sat 21/02 -2.31 Sun 01/03 +0.02 Sat 07/03 -1.68 Sat 14/03 +0.38 Sat 21/03 -1.49 Sat 04/04 +0.77 Sat 11/04 -1.92 Sat 18/04 +0.88 Sat 25/04 +0.16 Sun 03/05 +2.06 Sat 09/05 +1.62 Sat 16/05 -0.21 season avg
VfL Wolfsburg: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 23/08 1. FC Heidenheim 1.66 0.72 +0.94 +0.94
Sun 31/08 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.62 1.17 -0.55 +0.19
Sat 13/09 1. FC Köln 1.50 1.71 -0.21 +0.06
Sun 21/09 Borussia Dortmund 0.80 1.10 -0.30 -0.03
Sat 27/09 RB Leipzig 3.05 1.46 +1.59 +0.29
Sat 04/10 FC Augsburg 1.19 1.85 -0.66 +0.14
Sat 18/10 VfB Stuttgart 0.46 1.90 -1.44 -0.09
Sat 25/10 Hamburger SV 0.38 2.05 -1.67 -0.29
Sun 02/11 TSG Hoffenheim 1.55 1.02 +0.53 -0.20
Fri 07/11 SV Werder Bremen 0.68 1.45 -0.77 -0.25
Sat 22/11 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.13 1.01 +1.12 -0.13
Sun 30/11 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 0.80 +1.08 -0.03
Sat 06/12 1. FC Union Berlin 0.70 1.13 -0.43 -0.06
Sat 13/12 Borussia M'gladbach 1.82 0.80 +1.02 +0.02
Sat 20/12 SC Freiburg 1.90 2.90 -1.00 -0.05
Sun 11/01 FC Bayern München 1.70 3.30 -1.60 -0.15
Wed 14/01 FC St. Pauli 1.09 1.27 -0.18 -0.15
Sat 17/01 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 1.00 +0.08 -0.14
Sat 24/01 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.67 2.46 -1.79 -0.22
Fri 30/01 1. FC Köln 1.27 1.24 +0.03 -0.21
Sat 07/02 Borussia Dortmund 1.45 1.27 +0.18 -0.19
Sun 15/02 RB Leipzig 0.62 2.69 -2.07 -0.28
Sat 21/02 FC Augsburg 1.60 1.00 +0.60 -0.24
Sun 01/03 VfB Stuttgart 0.80 3.11 -2.31 -0.33
Sat 07/03 Hamburger SV 1.84 1.82 +0.02 -0.31
Sat 14/03 TSG Hoffenheim 0.25 1.93 -1.68 -0.36
Sat 21/03 SV Werder Bremen 0.76 0.38 +0.38 -0.34
Sat 04/04 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.23 2.72 -1.49 -0.38
Sat 11/04 Eintracht Frankfurt 2.16 1.39 +0.77 -0.34
Sat 18/04 1. FC Union Berlin 0.17 2.09 -1.92 -0.39
Sat 25/04 Borussia M'gladbach 1.39 0.51 +0.88 -0.35
Sun 03/05 SC Freiburg 0.92 0.76 +0.16 -0.33
Sat 09/05 FC Bayern München 3.13 1.07 +2.06 -0.26
Sat 16/05 FC St. Pauli 3.09 1.47 +1.62 -0.21

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.34 npxG and 1.55 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 18 in Bundesliga
+0.01 xG vs league average
34 of 36 league matches against a rated opponent
Last 5
−0.01 xG vs league average
3 of 5 league matches against a rated opponent
Not ranked: 3 of the 5 opponents are rated, and Last 5 ranks a run only when all of them are.
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · 34 of 36 rated · tied number 4 hardest of 18

  1. SC Paderborn 07 Away not yet rated
  2. SC Paderborn 07 Home not yet rated
  3. FC St. Pauli Away −0.49
  4. FC Bayern München Home +0.73
  5. SC Freiburg Away −0.27
  6. Borussia M'gladbach Home −0.20
  7. 1. FC Union Berlin Away −0.06
  8. Eintracht Frankfurt Home −0.21
  9. Bayer 04 Leverkusen Away +0.29
  10. SV Werder Bremen Home −0.09
  11. TSG Hoffenheim Away +0.22
  12. Hamburger SV Home −0.38
  13. VfB Stuttgart Away +0.28
  14. FC Augsburg Home −0.24
  15. RB Leipzig Away +0.28
  16. Borussia Dortmund Home +0.36
  17. 1. FC Köln Away +0.06
  18. 1. FSV Mainz 05 Away +0.14
  19. 1. FC Heidenheim Home −0.22
  20. FC St. Pauli Home −0.49
  21. FC Bayern München Away +0.73
  22. SC Freiburg Home −0.27
  23. Borussia M'gladbach Away −0.20
  24. 1. FC Union Berlin Home −0.06
  25. Eintracht Frankfurt Away −0.21
  26. Bayer 04 Leverkusen Home +0.29
  27. SV Werder Bremen Away −0.09
  28. TSG Hoffenheim Home +0.22
  29. Hamburger SV Away −0.38
  30. VfB Stuttgart Home +0.28
  31. FC Augsburg Away −0.24
  32. RB Leipzig Home +0.28
  33. Borussia Dortmund Away +0.36
  34. 1. FC Köln Home +0.06
  35. 1. FSV Mainz 05 Home +0.14
  36. 1. FC Heidenheim Away −0.22

Last 5

−0.01 xG vs league average · 3 of 5 rated

  1. SC Paderborn 07 Away not yet rated
  2. SC Paderborn 07 Home not yet rated
  3. FC St. Pauli Away −0.49
  4. FC Bayern München Home +0.73
  5. SC Freiburg Away −0.27

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

VfL Wolfsburg shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. VfL Wolfsburg take 11.9 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #15 in Bundesliga for volume and #6 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.9 shots per match
#15/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Bayern München 19.2
#2 RB Leipzig 15.8
#3 VfB Stuttgart 15.3
#4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 15.1
#5 TSG Hoffenheim 14.1
#6 1. FC Köln 13.4
#7 FC Augsburg 13.2
=8 Borussia Dortmund 13.1
=8 SV Werder Bremen 13.1
#10 1. FC Union Berlin 12.5
#11 Hamburger SV 12.3
#12 SC Freiburg 12.2
#13 1. FSV Mainz 05 12.1
#14 Eintracht Frankfurt 12.0
#15 VfL Wolfsburg 11.9
#16 Borussia M'gladbach 11.6
#17 1. FC Heidenheim 11.4
#18 FC St. Pauli 10.2
League avg
13.2
Total
405 shots from 34 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#6/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FC Bayern München 0.14
#2 Borussia Dortmund 0.13
#3 1. FC Heidenheim 0.12
#4 RB Leipzig 0.12
#5 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.12
#6 VfL Wolfsburg 0.11
#7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.11
#8 TSG Hoffenheim 0.11
#9 1. FC Köln 0.11
#10 SC Freiburg 0.11
#11 VfB Stuttgart 0.10
#12 1. FC Union Berlin 0.10
#13 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.10
#14 Borussia M'gladbach 0.10
#15 FC Augsburg 0.09
#16 Hamburger SV 0.09
#17 SV Werder Bremen 0.09
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
45.54 npxG from 405 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.4 shots per match
#18/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Bayern München 10.5
#2 Borussia Dortmund 10.7
#3 RB Leipzig 12.1
#4 TSG Hoffenheim 12.3
#5 FC St. Pauli 12.4
=6 Eintracht Frankfurt 12.6
=6 VfB Stuttgart 12.6
#8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12.8
#9 1. FC Union Berlin 12.9
#10 1. FC Köln 13.6
#11 SV Werder Bremen 13.7
#12 SC Freiburg 13.8
#13 1. FSV Mainz 05 14.1
#14 Borussia M'gladbach 14.2
#15 Hamburger SV 14.6
#16 FC Augsburg 14.8
#17 1. FC Heidenheim 15.3
#18 VfL Wolfsburg 15.4
League avg
13.2
Total
523 shots allowed from 34 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#3/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.09
#2 SC Freiburg 0.10
#3 VfL Wolfsburg 0.10
#4 VfB Stuttgart 0.10
#5 Borussia M'gladbach 0.10
#6 Borussia Dortmund 0.10
#7 SV Werder Bremen 0.11
#8 1. FC Union Berlin 0.11
#9 1. FC Köln 0.11
#10 Hamburger SV 0.11
#11 FC Bayern München 0.11
#12 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.11
#13 1. FC Heidenheim 0.11
#14 TSG Hoffenheim 0.11
#15 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.11
#16 RB Leipzig 0.12
#17 FC Augsburg 0.12
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.13
League avg
0.11
Total
52.55 npxGA from 523 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 258 of 405 shots over 34 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 353 of 523 shots allowed over 34 matches

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 10.4 of 43.6 npxG over 34 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

71% open play · 29% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 15.0 of 50.8 npxG allowed over 34 matches

How the shot figures are made →

VfL Wolfsburg home and away xG

VfL Wolfsburg per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 18 17 with xG 18 17 with xG
xG / match 1.58 1.20
xGA / match 1.56 2.05
xGD / match +0.03 -0.84
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.42 0.92

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every VfL Wolfsburg match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 10

Matches
10 8 with xG
xG / match
1.77
xGA / match
1.56
xGD / match
+0.21
Points
10 of 30
  1. Mon 25/05 SC Paderborn 07 A
  2. Thu 21/05 SC Paderborn 07 H
  3. Sat 16/05 FC St. Pauli A Best underlying xG 3.50 xGA 1.48 xGD +2.02
  4. Sat 09/05 FC Bayern München H Against the chances xG 3.04 xGA 1.85 P xGD +1.19
  5. Sun 03/05 SC Freiburg A xG 0.82 xGA 0.94 xGD -0.12
  6. Sat 25/04 Borussia M'gladbach H xG 1.47 xGA 0.51 xGD +0.96
  7. Sat 18/04 1. FC Union Berlin A Against the chances xG 0.19 xGA 1.79 xGD -1.60
  8. Sat 11/04 Eintracht Frankfurt H Against the chances xG 2.33 xGA 1.29 xGD +1.04
  9. Sat 04/04 Bayer 04 Leverkusen A Weakest underlying xG 2.02 P xGA 4.25 P xGD -2.23
  10. Sat 21/03 SV Werder Bremen H xG 0.76 xGA 0.37 xGD +0.39

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.25. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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