Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
29d 9h to kick-offBirmingham City – Bolton Wanderers
- Birmingham City
- 49%
- Fair 2.04 Fair odds 2.04
- Draw
- 29%
- Fair 3.49 Fair odds 3.49
- Bolton Wanderers
- 22%
- Fair 4.48 Fair odds 4.48
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Birmingham City 20/20
- Bolton Wanderers 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County
- D 1.23 created, 2.14 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.55 created, 1.05 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 2.24 created, 0.49 conceded against Preston North End
- W 1.30 created, 1.15 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.89 created, 2.36 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
- L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
- W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
- D 1.22 created, 1.87 conceded against Southampton
- L 0.91 created, 4.17 conceded against Middlesbrough
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- Birmingham City 2+ goals
- 51%
- Birmingham City clean sheet
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 8.7%
Why the model favours Birmingham City
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Birmingham City.
- Attack
- Favours Birmingham City
- 8th vs 18th
- Birmingham City attack v Bolton Wanderers defence
- Defence
- Favours Birmingham City
- 7th vs 9th
- Birmingham City defence v Bolton Wanderers attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Birmingham City
- +0.51 vs -0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Birmingham City | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.69 · 7th | 1.36 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.33 · 11th | 1.90 · 24th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.37 · 7th | -0.55 · 19th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.64 · 6th | 1.06 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.51 | -0.51 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Birmingham City sample
- 20 matches
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Birmingham City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Bolton Wanderers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.