What Burnley have left to play in Championship 2026/2027, soonest first. Open a match for the projection behind it and the prices standing against it.
Fixture outlook
6 matches ahead in Championship
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
What the fixtures say
The run of 6 matches ahead of Burnley in Championship rates 3.3 of 5 for difficulty, which the scale calls Balanced. 1 of them rates easier than balanced, and 3 of them rate harder than balanced. The model expects 1.24 projected xG a match from them and 7.1 of the 18 points the priced fixtures could return. The hardest of them is Millwall away, banded 4 of 5 — Difficult, against an attack rated 64/99 and a defence rated 62/99.
The run at a glance
Blackburn Rovers home Sun 22/11
Projected xG 1.57 – 1.12 Burnley win 46%
Millwall away Sat 28/11
Projected xG 1.09 – 1.73 Burnley win 21%
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Open the match page for Portsmouth
Sat 31/10 Home Portsmouth Championship
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 41/99, defence 72/99Projected xG 1.19 – 1.21 Projected xPts 1.33- Burnley
- 33%
- Draw
- 32%
- Portsmouth
- 34%
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Open the match page for Queens Park Rangers
Tue 03/11 Away Queens Park Rangers Championship
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 56/99, defence 70/99Projected xG 1.02 – 1.63 Projected xPts 0.92- Queens Park Rangers
- 50%
- Draw
- 29%
- Burnley
- 21%
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Open the match page for Cardiff City
Sat 07/11 Away Cardiff City Championship
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 67/99, defence 39/99Projected xG 1.27 – 1.79 Projected xPts 1.01- Cardiff City
- 48%
- Draw
- 27%
- Burnley
- 25%
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Open the match page for Blackburn Rovers
Sun 22/11 Home Blackburn Rovers Championship
2 Favourable Opponent: attack 33/99, defence 32/99Projected xG 1.57 – 1.12 Projected xPts 1.69- Burnley
- 46%
- Draw
- 29%
- Blackburn Rovers
- 24%
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Open the match page for Birmingham City
Wed 25/11 Home Birmingham City Championship
3 Balanced Opponent: attack 55/99, defence 65/99Projected xG 1.27 – 1.37 Projected xPts 1.27- Burnley
- 32%
- Draw
- 31%
- Birmingham City
- 37%
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Open the match page for Millwall
Sat 28/11 Away Millwall Championship
4 Difficult Opponent: attack 64/99, defence 62/99Projected xG 1.09 – 1.73 Projected xPts 0.91- Millwall
- 51%
- Draw
- 28%
- Burnley
- 21%
Championship publishes only its next few rounds, so the list stops here. The rest of the season is added as the league schedules it.
The band is how hard the model rates each match, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). Opponent attack and defence use the same 1–99 scale as Team Strength, where 50 is the average side in Championship.
Fixture difficulty in Championship
Reads each matchup for Burnley: the band is cut from the model's chances of Burnley winning and losing the match, so Burnley's own strength and home advantage are in it.
Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.
Upcoming opponent strength
tied number 8 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.05 xG vs league average
Over 5 upcoming league fixtures
Reads the opponents alone, whoever plays them: each one's fitted xG margin against Championship's average club, with no venue and nothing of Burnley's own strength in it.
Opponents behind the figure
Upcoming
+0.05 xG vs league average · over 5 fixtures · tied number 8 hardest of 24
- Portsmouth Home +0.09
- Queens Park Rangers Away +0.24
- Cardiff City Away +0.10
- Blackburn Rovers Home −0.35
- Birmingham City Home +0.18
About these numbers
What is published, what is worked out, and what is the model's
Published by the fixtures feed and stored as it arrives: the kickoff time, the two clubs, the competition, and whether a match is still scheduled.
Worked out here from stored figures: each opponent's attack and defence on a 1–99 scale, where 50 is the average side in Championship and a higher score is a stronger side at both ends; the difficulty band, cut from the model's chances of winning and losing each fixture; and everything the outlook, the strip and the fixture difficulty block add up from the rows — the run's mean band, its averages and totals, the counts they were taken over, the placings and the competition's average.
Worked out here from the model's ratings alone: the Upcoming opponent strength block, the mean of the next 5 opponents' fitted xG margins against the league's average club, whoever plays them, and its rank among the competition's clubs.
The model's output, for matches nobody has played yet: projected xG and xGA, the chances of a win, a draw and a loss, and xPts.
Projected xG is what the model expects a side to create in a match still to come. It is not the xG on the Results page, which measures the chances a side actually had.
xPts is what those three chances are worth in points: 3 times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw, so 3 is the most a single fixture can be worth.
The difficulty band runs from 1, the most favourable fixture, to 5, the least favourable — so the lower a run's difficulty, the kinder the run.