xgEdge

Expected goals

Burnley expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Championship · after 12 matches · updated 30 Oct

Burnley's attacking and defensive expected goals in Championship 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Burnley xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.32 xG per match
#13/24
Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.16
#2 West Ham United 2.11
#3 Cardiff City 1.92
#4 Southampton 1.81
#5 Millwall 1.75
#6 Wolverhampton 1.72
#7 Birmingham City 1.69
#8 Queens Park Rangers 1.65
#9 Swansea City 1.49
#10 Norwich City 1.48
#11 Bolton Wanderers 1.36
#12 West Bromwich Albion 1.35
#13 Burnley 1.32
#14 Portsmouth 1.31
#15 Lincoln City 1.30
#16 Preston North End 1.28
#17 Bristol City 1.27
#18 Sheffield United 1.18
#19 Wrexham 1.17
#20 Watford 1.05
#21 Blackburn Rovers 1.03
#22 Charlton Athletic 0.99
#23 Derby County 0.97
#24 Stoke City 0.88
League avg
1.43
Total
15.84 12 matches
Defence
1.65 xGA per match
#20/24
Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Wolverhampton 0.92
#2 Middlesbrough 1.02
#3 Queens Park Rangers 1.12
#4 Portsmouth 1.13
#5 Wrexham 1.21
#6 West Ham United 1.21
#7 Bristol City 1.29
#8 Swansea City 1.32
#9 Millwall 1.32
#10 Southampton 1.33
#11 Birmingham City 1.33
#12 Lincoln City 1.45
#13 Sheffield United 1.46
#14 West Bromwich Albion 1.47
#15 Preston North End 1.51
#16 Norwich City 1.53
#17 Cardiff City 1.57
#18 Charlton Athletic 1.58
#19 Stoke City 1.63
#20 Burnley 1.65
#21 Derby County 1.72
#22 Blackburn Rovers 1.72
#23 Watford 1.88
#24 Bolton Wanderers 1.90
League avg
1.43
Total
19.76 12 matches
xG difference
-0.33 xGD per match
#18/24
xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Middlesbrough +1.15
#2 West Ham United +0.90
#3 Wolverhampton +0.81
#4 Queens Park Rangers +0.53
#5 Southampton +0.48
#6 Millwall +0.43
#7 Birmingham City +0.37
#8 Cardiff City +0.35
#9 Portsmouth +0.18
#10 Swansea City +0.17
#11 Bristol City -0.02
#12 Wrexham -0.04
#13 Norwich City -0.05
#14 West Bromwich Albion -0.12
#15 Lincoln City -0.15
#16 Preston North End -0.23
#17 Sheffield United -0.28
#18 Burnley -0.33
#19 Bolton Wanderers -0.55
#20 Charlton Athletic -0.60
#21 Blackburn Rovers -0.69
#22 Derby County -0.75
#23 Stoke City -0.75
#24 Watford -0.83
League avg
0.00
Total
-3.92 12 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.11 xPts per match
#18/24
Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.10
#2 Wolverhampton 1.97
#3 West Ham United 1.84
#4 Queens Park Rangers 1.72
#5 Southampton 1.70
#6 Birmingham City 1.64
#7 Millwall 1.63
#8 Cardiff City 1.58
#9 Portsmouth 1.51
#10 Swansea City 1.50
#11 Bristol City 1.44
#12 Wrexham 1.41
#13 Lincoln City 1.35
#14 Norwich City 1.33
#15 West Bromwich Albion 1.27
#16 Preston North End 1.19
#17 Sheffield United 1.17
#18 Burnley 1.11
#19 Bolton Wanderers 1.06
#20 Derby County 1.02
#21 Charlton Athletic 0.97
#22 Stoke City 0.94
#23 Blackburn Rovers 0.92
#24 Watford 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
13.29 vs 8 actual pts

What the xG says

Burnley's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Championship. They rank #18 for xG difference at -0.33 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 17 goals are 1.16 above 15.84 xG, while 8 points are 5.29 below 13.29 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.13 xG from penalties
17 15.84 +1.16 scored 1.16 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
25 19.76 +5.24 conceded 5.24 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 13.29 -5.29 5.29 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Burnley are 1.16 goals above their xG after 12 matches. The gap was widest at +2.51, against Charlton Athletic on Tue 13/10.

Goals
17
xG
15.84
Gap
+1.16
Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 Sat 10/10 Tue 13/10 Fri 16/10 Sat 24/10 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -0.33 -0.51 -0.89 -0.53 +0.21 -0.29 -1.02 -0.47 +1.59 +2.51 +2.51 +1.16 -0.33 -0.18 -0.38 +0.36 +0.74 -0.50 -0.73 +0.55 +2.06 +0.92 +0.00 -1.35 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Burnley: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 16/08 West Ham United 2 2.33 -0.33 -0.33
Sun 23/08 West Bromwich Albion 1 1.18 -0.18 -0.51
Sat 29/08 Norwich City 1 1.38 -0.38 -0.89
Wed 02/09 Middlesbrough 1 0.64 +0.36 -0.53
Sat 05/09 Bristol City 1 0.26 +0.74 +0.21
Tue 08/09 Wrexham 1 1.50 -0.50 -0.29
Sat 12/09 Swansea City 1 1.73 -0.73 -1.02
Sat 19/09 Derby County 1 0.45 +0.55 -0.47
Sat 10/10 Watford 4 1.94 +2.06 +1.59
Tue 13/10 Charlton Athletic 2 1.08 +0.92 +2.51
Fri 16/10 Wolverhampton 1 1.00 +0.00 +2.51
Sat 24/10 Lincoln City 1 2.35 -1.35 +1.16

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Burnley xG trend

Current form -0.39 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 12 matches. The worst was against Charlton Athletic on Tue 13/10 (-1.05).

npxG · last 6
1.30
npxGA · last 6
1.69
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.01 Sun 16/08 +0.47 Sun 23/08 -0.97 Sat 29/08 -0.58 Wed 02/09 -0.69 Sat 05/09 +0.21 Tue 08/09 -0.60 Sat 12/09 -0.74 Sat 19/09 +1.28 Sat 10/10 -1.05 Tue 13/10 -0.83 Fri 16/10 -0.37 Sat 24/10 -0.32 season avg
Burnley: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 16/08 West Ham United 1.29 1.30 -0.01 -0.01
Sun 23/08 West Bromwich Albion 1.32 0.85 +0.47 +0.23
Sat 29/08 Norwich City 0.95 1.92 -0.97 -0.17
Wed 02/09 Middlesbrough 0.64 1.22 -0.58 -0.27
Sat 05/09 Bristol City 0.20 0.89 -0.69 -0.36
Tue 08/09 Wrexham 1.50 1.29 +0.21 -0.26
Sat 12/09 Swansea City 1.79 2.39 -0.60 -0.31
Sat 19/09 Derby County 0.49 1.23 -0.74 -0.36
Sat 10/10 Watford 1.89 0.61 +1.28 -0.18
Tue 13/10 Charlton Athletic 1.08 2.13 -1.05 -0.27
Fri 16/10 Wolverhampton 1.00 1.83 -0.83 -0.32
Sat 24/10 Lincoln City 1.56 1.93 -0.37 -0.32

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.14 npxG and 1.47 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 6 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 12 league matches
Last 5
tied number 22 hardest of 24 in Championship
−0.17 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 12 matches · number 6 hardest of 24

  1. Lincoln City Away −0.14
  2. Wolverhampton Home +0.47
  3. Charlton Athletic Home −0.45
  4. Watford Away −0.44
  5. Derby County Home −0.29
  6. Swansea City Away +0.08
  7. Wrexham Away −0.02
  8. Bristol City Home −0.12
  9. Middlesbrough Home +0.87
  10. Norwich City Away +0.03
  11. West Bromwich Albion Away −0.02
  12. West Ham United Home +0.49

Last 5

−0.17 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 22 hardest of 24

  1. Lincoln City Away −0.14
  2. Wolverhampton Home +0.47
  3. Charlton Athletic Home −0.45
  4. Watford Away −0.44
  5. Derby County Home −0.29

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Burnley shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Burnley take 13.8 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #10 in Championship for volume and #19 for quality. 59% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 23% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.8 shots per match
#10/24
Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Middlesbrough 20.1
#2 West Ham United 17.3
#3 Cardiff City 17.1
#4 Wolverhampton 16.8
#5 Southampton 15.2
#6 Queens Park Rangers 14.8
#7 Portsmouth 14.6
#8 Norwich City 14.1
#9 Millwall 13.9
#10 Burnley 13.8
#11 Bolton Wanderers 13.7
#12 Bristol City 13.5
#13 Birmingham City 13.2
#14 Preston North End 12.7
#15 Derby County 12.6
=16 Lincoln City 12.3
=16 Wrexham 12.3
=18 Watford 12.3
=18 West Bromwich Albion 12.3
#20 Swansea City 11.8
#21 Blackburn Rovers 11.6
#22 Stoke City 11.3
#23 Sheffield United 10.7
#24 Charlton Athletic 10.0
League avg
13.7
Total
165 shots from 12 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#19/24
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Swansea City 0.12
#2 Millwall 0.12
#3 Birmingham City 0.12
#4 Middlesbrough 0.11
#5 West Ham United 0.11
#6 Southampton 0.11
#7 Sheffield United 0.11
#8 Charlton Athletic 0.10
#9 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#10 Cardiff City 0.10
#11 West Bromwich Albion 0.10
#12 Preston North End 0.09
#13 Wolverhampton 0.09
#14 Wrexham 0.09
#15 Lincoln City 0.09
#16 Norwich City 0.09
#17 Bristol City 0.09
#18 Bolton Wanderers 0.09
#19 Burnley 0.08
#20 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#21 Portsmouth 0.08
#22 Watford 0.08
#23 Derby County 0.07
#24 Stoke City 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
13.71 npxG from 165 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.7 shots per match
#15/24
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Wolverhampton 10.3
=2 Portsmouth 10.9
=2 Swansea City 10.9
#4 Middlesbrough 11.1
#5 Queens Park Rangers 11.4
#6 West Ham United 11.8
#7 Bristol City 11.9
#8 Wrexham 12.0
=9 Birmingham City 12.1
=9 Norwich City 12.1
=9 West Bromwich Albion 12.1
#12 Millwall 13.0
#13 Bolton Wanderers 14.3
#14 Cardiff City 14.4
#15 Burnley 14.7
#16 Derby County 15.1
=17 Sheffield United 15.5
=17 Stoke City 15.5
#19 Lincoln City 15.7
#20 Southampton 15.8
#21 Preston North End 16.2
#22 Watford 16.6
#23 Charlton Athletic 17.0
#24 Blackburn Rovers 17.3
League avg
13.7
Total
176 shots allowed from 12 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#17/24
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Southampton 0.07
#2 Charlton Athletic 0.08
#3 Wolverhampton 0.08
#4 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#5 Lincoln City 0.09
#6 Sheffield United 0.09
#7 Middlesbrough 0.09
#8 West Ham United 0.09
#9 Millwall 0.09
#10 Preston North End 0.09
#11 Stoke City 0.09
#12 Wrexham 0.09
#13 Bristol City 0.09
#14 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#15 Portsmouth 0.10
#16 Cardiff City 0.10
#17 Burnley 0.10
#18 Birmingham City 0.10
#19 Swansea City 0.10
#20 Watford 0.10
#21 Derby County 0.11
#22 West Bromwich Albion 0.12
#23 Norwich City 0.12
#24 Bolton Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
17.59 npxGA from 176 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

59% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 97 of 165 shots over 12 matches

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 116 of 176 shots allowed over 12 matches

Where the npxG comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 3.2 of 13.7 npxG over 12 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

62% open play · 38% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 6.7 of 17.6 npxG allowed over 12 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Burnley home and away xG

Burnley per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 6 6
xG / match 0.96 1.68
xGA / match 1.55 1.74
xGD / match -0.59 -0.06
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.86 1.35

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Burnley match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
6
xG / match
0.96
xGA / match
1.55
xGD / match
-0.59
Points
4 of 18
  1. Fri 16/10 Wolverhampton H xG 1.00 xGA 1.82 xGD -0.82
  2. Tue 13/10 Charlton Athletic H xG 1.08 xGA 2.13 xGD -1.05
  3. Sat 19/09 Derby County H Weakest underlying xG 0.45 xGA 1.75 P xGD -1.30
  4. Sat 05/09 Bristol City H xG 0.26 xGA 1.06 xGD -0.80
  5. Wed 02/09 Middlesbrough H xG 0.64 xGA 1.22 xGD -0.58
  6. Sun 16/08 West Ham United H Best underlying xG 2.33 P xGA 1.33 xGD +1.00

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Burnley in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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