Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
8d 7h to kick-offCardiff City – Burnley
- Cardiff City
- 48%
- Fair 2.07 Fair odds 2.07
- Draw
- 27%
- Fair 3.68 Fair odds 3.68
- Burnley
- 25%
- Fair 4.06 Fair odds 4.06
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Cardiff City 12/20
- Burnley 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
- D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.36 created, 0.89 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
- D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
- W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
- D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 2.35 created, 1.90 conceded against Lincoln City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- Cardiff City 2+ goals
- 55%
- Cardiff City clean sheet
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 7.6%
Why the model favours Cardiff City
Cardiff City's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours Cardiff City
- 4th vs 16th
- Cardiff City attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- Favours Burnley
- 15th vs 11th
- Cardiff City defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Cardiff City
- +0.52 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cardiff City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.92 · 3rd | 1.32 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.57 · 17th | 1.65 · 20th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.35 · 8th | -0.33 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.58 · 8th | 1.11 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.52 | -0.39 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 12 matches
- Burnley sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Cardiff City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Burnley
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.