Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
4d 13h to kick-offCharlton Athletic – Bolton Wanderers
- Charlton Athletic
- 32%
- Fair 3.14 Fair odds 3.14
- Draw
- 30%
- Fair 3.29 Fair odds 3.29
- Bolton Wanderers
- 38%
- Fair 2.65 Fair odds 2.65
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Charlton Athletic 20/20
- Bolton Wanderers 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
- L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
- W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
- D 1.22 created, 1.87 conceded against Southampton
- L 0.91 created, 4.17 conceded against Middlesbrough
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals
- 42%
- Bolton Wanderers clean sheet
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:2
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 9.0%
Why the model leans Bolton Wanderers, but not by much
Bolton Wanderers is the better side at both ends of the pitch; recent form does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours Bolton Wanderers
- 9th vs 22nd
- Bolton Wanderers attack v Charlton Athletic defence
- Defence
- Favours Bolton Wanderers
- 18th vs 23rd
- Bolton Wanderers defence v Charlton Athletic attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Charlton Athletic
- -0.50 vs -0.33
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Charlton Athletic | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.99 · 22nd | (better) 1.36 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.58 · 18th | 1.90 · 24th |
| xGD / match | -0.60 · 20th | (better) -0.55 · 19th |
| xPts / match | 0.97 · 21st | (better) 1.06 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.33 | -0.51 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Charlton Athletic
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Bolton Wanderers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.