Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
29d 7h to kick-offDerby County – Watford
- Derby County
- 44%
- Fair 2.26 Fair odds 2.26
- Draw
- 30%
- Fair 3.35 Fair odds 3.35
- Watford
- 26%
- Fair 3.87 Fair odds 3.87
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Derby County 20/20
- Watford 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
- D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
- L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.99 created, 0.56 conceded against Stoke City
- D 1.09 created, 2.47 conceded against Sheffield United
- L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
- L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
- L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 2.78 created, 1.25 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 0.13 created, 1.84 conceded against Wolverhampton
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- Derby County 2+ goals
- 46%
- Derby County clean sheet
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:0
- 8.3%
Why the model favours Derby County
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Derby County.
- Attack
- Favours Derby County
- 19th vs 23rd
- Derby County attack v Watford defence
- Defence
- Favours Derby County
- 20th vs 22nd
- Derby County defence v Watford attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Derby County
- -0.54 vs -0.95
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Derby County | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 23rd | (better) 1.05 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.72 · 21st | 1.88 · 23rd |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.75 · 22nd | -0.83 · 24th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.02 · 20th | 0.82 · 24th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.54 | -0.95 |
Head to head
Derby County 0 Draws 0 Watford 2
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Derby County
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Watford
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.