xgEdge

Expected goals

Preston North End expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Championship · after 12 matches · updated 30 Oct

Preston North End's attacking and defensive expected goals in Championship 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Preston North End xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.28 xG per match
#16/24
Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.16
#2 West Ham United 2.11
#3 Cardiff City 1.92
#4 Southampton 1.81
#5 Millwall 1.75
#6 Wolverhampton 1.72
#7 Birmingham City 1.69
#8 Queens Park Rangers 1.65
#9 Swansea City 1.49
#10 Norwich City 1.48
#11 Bolton Wanderers 1.36
#12 West Bromwich Albion 1.35
#13 Burnley 1.32
#14 Portsmouth 1.31
#15 Lincoln City 1.30
#16 Preston North End 1.28
#17 Bristol City 1.27
#18 Sheffield United 1.18
#19 Wrexham 1.17
#20 Watford 1.05
#21 Blackburn Rovers 1.03
#22 Charlton Athletic 0.99
#23 Derby County 0.97
#24 Stoke City 0.88
League avg
1.43
Total
15.41 12 matches
Defence
1.51 xGA per match
#15/24
Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Wolverhampton 0.92
#2 Middlesbrough 1.02
#3 Queens Park Rangers 1.12
#4 Portsmouth 1.13
#5 Wrexham 1.21
#6 West Ham United 1.21
#7 Bristol City 1.29
#8 Swansea City 1.32
#9 Millwall 1.32
#10 Southampton 1.33
#11 Birmingham City 1.33
#12 Lincoln City 1.45
#13 Sheffield United 1.46
#14 West Bromwich Albion 1.47
#15 Preston North End 1.51
#16 Norwich City 1.53
#17 Cardiff City 1.57
#18 Charlton Athletic 1.58
#19 Stoke City 1.63
#20 Burnley 1.65
#21 Derby County 1.72
#22 Blackburn Rovers 1.72
#23 Watford 1.88
#24 Bolton Wanderers 1.90
League avg
1.43
Total
18.16 12 matches
xG difference
-0.23 xGD per match
#16/24
xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Middlesbrough +1.15
#2 West Ham United +0.90
#3 Wolverhampton +0.81
#4 Queens Park Rangers +0.53
#5 Southampton +0.48
#6 Millwall +0.43
#7 Birmingham City +0.37
#8 Cardiff City +0.35
#9 Portsmouth +0.18
#10 Swansea City +0.17
#11 Bristol City -0.02
#12 Wrexham -0.04
#13 Norwich City -0.05
#14 West Bromwich Albion -0.12
#15 Lincoln City -0.15
#16 Preston North End -0.23
#17 Sheffield United -0.28
#18 Burnley -0.33
#19 Bolton Wanderers -0.55
#20 Charlton Athletic -0.60
#21 Blackburn Rovers -0.69
#22 Derby County -0.75
#23 Stoke City -0.75
#24 Watford -0.83
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.75 12 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.19 xPts per match
#16/24
Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.10
#2 Wolverhampton 1.97
#3 West Ham United 1.84
#4 Queens Park Rangers 1.72
#5 Southampton 1.70
#6 Birmingham City 1.64
#7 Millwall 1.63
#8 Cardiff City 1.58
#9 Portsmouth 1.51
#10 Swansea City 1.50
#11 Bristol City 1.44
#12 Wrexham 1.41
#13 Lincoln City 1.35
#14 Norwich City 1.33
#15 West Bromwich Albion 1.27
#16 Preston North End 1.19
#17 Sheffield United 1.17
#18 Burnley 1.11
#19 Bolton Wanderers 1.06
#20 Derby County 1.02
#21 Charlton Athletic 0.97
#22 Stoke City 0.94
#23 Blackburn Rovers 0.92
#24 Watford 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
14.33 vs 5 actual pts

What the xG says

Preston North End's underlying numbers sit close to the Championship average. They rank #16 for xG difference at -0.23 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 10 goals are 5.41 below 15.41 xG, while 5 points are 9.33 below 14.33 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.19 xG from penalties
10 15.41 -5.41 scored 5.41 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
25 18.16 +6.84 conceded 6.84 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
5 14.33 -9.33 9.33 points below xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Preston North End are 5.41 goals below their xG after 12 matches.

Goals
10
xG
15.41
Gap
-5.41
Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Tue 01/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 Sat 10/10 Tue 13/10 Sat 17/10 Sat 24/10 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.12 +0.22 -1.10 -2.01 -2.20 -3.68 -4.26 -3.76 -4.41 -4.90 -4.62 -5.41 -0.12 +0.34 -1.32 -0.91 -0.19 -1.48 -0.58 +0.50 -0.65 -0.49 +0.28 -0.79 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Preston North End: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 15/08 Bolton Wanderers 1 1.12 -0.12 -0.12
Sat 22/08 Wolverhampton 1 0.66 +0.34 +0.22
Sat 29/08 Charlton Athletic 0 1.32 -1.32 -1.10
Tue 01/09 Bristol City 1 1.91 -0.91 -2.01
Sat 05/09 Blackburn Rovers 2 2.19 -0.19 -2.20
Tue 08/09 Watford 1 2.48 -1.48 -3.68
Sat 12/09 Lincoln City 0 0.58 -0.58 -4.26
Sat 19/09 Queens Park Rangers 2 1.50 +0.50 -3.76
Sat 10/10 Millwall 0 0.65 -0.65 -4.41
Tue 13/10 Birmingham City 0 0.49 -0.49 -4.90
Sat 17/10 Wrexham 1 0.72 +0.28 -4.62
Sat 24/10 West Bromwich Albion 1 1.79 -0.79 -5.41

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Preston North End xG trend

Current form -0.83 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 12 matches. The worst was against Birmingham City on Tue 13/10 (-1.72).

npxG · last 6
0.91
npxGA · last 6
1.74
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.30 Sat 15/08 -0.81 Sat 22/08 +0.04 Sat 29/08 -0.09 Tue 01/09 +0.81 Sat 05/09 +1.22 Tue 08/09 -0.09 Sat 12/09 -1.15 Sat 19/09 -0.51 Sat 10/10 -1.72 Tue 13/10 -1.14 Sat 17/10 -0.37 Sat 24/10 -0.29 season avg
Preston North End: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 15/08 Bolton Wanderers 1.41 1.11 +0.30 +0.30
Sat 22/08 Wolverhampton 0.67 1.48 -0.81 -0.25
Sat 29/08 Charlton Athletic 0.91 0.87 +0.04 -0.16
Tue 01/09 Bristol City 1.77 1.86 -0.09 -0.14
Sat 05/09 Blackburn Rovers 1.54 0.73 +0.81 +0.05
Tue 08/09 Watford 2.48 1.26 +1.22 +0.24
Sat 12/09 Lincoln City 0.55 0.64 -0.09 +0.20
Sat 19/09 Queens Park Rangers 1.31 2.46 -1.15 +0.03
Sat 10/10 Millwall 0.58 1.09 -0.51 -0.03
Tue 13/10 Birmingham City 0.49 2.21 -1.72 -0.20
Sat 17/10 Wrexham 0.72 1.86 -1.14 -0.29
Sat 24/10 West Bromwich Albion 1.79 2.16 -0.37 -0.29

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.19 npxG and 1.48 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 19 hardest of 24 in Championship
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 12 league matches
Last 5
tied number 5 hardest of 24 in Championship
+0.13 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 12 matches · tied number 19 hardest of 24

  1. West Bromwich Albion Home −0.02
  2. Wrexham Away −0.02
  3. Birmingham City Away +0.18
  4. Millwall Home +0.26
  5. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.24
  6. Lincoln City Home −0.14
  7. Watford Away −0.44
  8. Blackburn Rovers Home −0.35
  9. Bristol City Home −0.12
  10. Charlton Athletic Away −0.45
  11. Wolverhampton Home +0.47
  12. Bolton Wanderers Away −0.13

Last 5

+0.13 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 5 hardest of 24

  1. West Bromwich Albion Home −0.02
  2. Wrexham Away −0.02
  3. Birmingham City Away +0.18
  4. Millwall Home +0.26
  5. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.24

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Preston North End shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Preston North End take 12.7 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #14 in Championship for volume and #12 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 35% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.7 shots per match
#14/24
Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Middlesbrough 20.1
#2 West Ham United 17.3
#3 Cardiff City 17.1
#4 Wolverhampton 16.8
#5 Southampton 15.2
#6 Queens Park Rangers 14.8
#7 Portsmouth 14.6
#8 Norwich City 14.1
#9 Millwall 13.9
#10 Burnley 13.8
#11 Bolton Wanderers 13.7
#12 Bristol City 13.5
#13 Birmingham City 13.2
#14 Preston North End 12.7
#15 Derby County 12.6
=16 Lincoln City 12.3
=16 Wrexham 12.3
=18 Watford 12.3
=18 West Bromwich Albion 12.3
#20 Swansea City 11.8
#21 Blackburn Rovers 11.6
#22 Stoke City 11.3
#23 Sheffield United 10.7
#24 Charlton Athletic 10.0
League avg
13.7
Total
152 shots from 12 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#12/24
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Swansea City 0.12
#2 Millwall 0.12
#3 Birmingham City 0.12
#4 Middlesbrough 0.11
#5 West Ham United 0.11
#6 Southampton 0.11
#7 Sheffield United 0.11
#8 Charlton Athletic 0.10
#9 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#10 Cardiff City 0.10
#11 West Bromwich Albion 0.10
#12 Preston North End 0.09
#13 Wolverhampton 0.09
#14 Wrexham 0.09
#15 Lincoln City 0.09
#16 Norwich City 0.09
#17 Bristol City 0.09
#18 Bolton Wanderers 0.09
#19 Burnley 0.08
#20 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#21 Portsmouth 0.08
#22 Watford 0.08
#23 Derby County 0.07
#24 Stoke City 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
14.22 npxG from 152 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.2 shots per match
#21/24
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Wolverhampton 10.3
=2 Portsmouth 10.9
=2 Swansea City 10.9
#4 Middlesbrough 11.1
#5 Queens Park Rangers 11.4
#6 West Ham United 11.8
#7 Bristol City 11.9
#8 Wrexham 12.0
=9 Birmingham City 12.1
=9 Norwich City 12.1
=9 West Bromwich Albion 12.1
#12 Millwall 13.0
#13 Bolton Wanderers 14.3
#14 Cardiff City 14.4
#15 Burnley 14.7
#16 Derby County 15.1
=17 Sheffield United 15.5
=17 Stoke City 15.5
#19 Lincoln City 15.7
#20 Southampton 15.8
#21 Preston North End 16.2
#22 Watford 16.6
#23 Charlton Athletic 17.0
#24 Blackburn Rovers 17.3
League avg
13.7
Total
194 shots allowed from 12 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#10/24
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Southampton 0.07
#2 Charlton Athletic 0.08
#3 Wolverhampton 0.08
#4 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#5 Lincoln City 0.09
#6 Sheffield United 0.09
#7 Middlesbrough 0.09
#8 West Ham United 0.09
#9 Millwall 0.09
#10 Preston North End 0.09
#11 Stoke City 0.09
#12 Wrexham 0.09
#13 Bristol City 0.09
#14 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#15 Portsmouth 0.10
#16 Cardiff City 0.10
#17 Burnley 0.10
#18 Birmingham City 0.10
#19 Swansea City 0.10
#20 Watford 0.10
#21 Derby County 0.11
#22 West Bromwich Albion 0.12
#23 Norwich City 0.12
#24 Bolton Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
17.73 npxGA from 194 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 98 of 152 shots over 12 matches

Shots allowed, location

62% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 120 of 194 shots allowed over 12 matches

Where the npxG comes from

65% open play · 35% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 4.9 of 14.2 npxG over 12 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

75% open play · 25% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 4.5 of 17.8 npxG allowed over 12 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Preston North End home and away xG

Preston North End per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 6 6
xG / match 1.30 1.27
xGA / match 1.37 1.65
xGD / match -0.08 -0.38
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.26 1.13

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Preston North End match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 10

Matches
10
xG / match
1.36
xGA / match
1.55
xGD / match
-0.19
Points
5 of 30
  1. Sat 24/10 West Bromwich Albion H xG 1.79 xGA 2.08 xGD -0.29
  2. Sat 17/10 Wrexham A xG 0.72 xGA 1.86 xGD -1.14
  3. Tue 13/10 Birmingham City A Weakest underlying xG 0.49 xGA 2.24 xGD -1.75
  4. Sat 10/10 Millwall H xG 0.65 xGA 1.09 xGD -0.44
  5. Sat 19/09 Queens Park Rangers A xG 1.50 xGA 2.54 xGD -1.04
  6. Sat 12/09 Lincoln City H xG 0.58 xGA 0.66 xGD -0.08
  7. Tue 08/09 Watford A Against the chances xG 2.48 xGA 1.44 xGD +1.04
  8. Sat 05/09 Blackburn Rovers H Best underlying xG 2.19 P xGA 1.09 xGD +1.10
  9. Tue 01/09 Bristol City H xG 1.91 xGA 1.78 xGD +0.13
  10. Sat 29/08 Charlton Athletic A xG 1.32 xGA 0.74 xGD +0.58

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Preston North End in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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