Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
4d 15h to kick-offQueens Park Rangers – Burnley
- Queens Park Rangers
- 50%
- Fair 1.99 Fair odds 1.99
- Draw
- 29%
- Fair 3.47 Fair odds 3.47
- Burnley
- 21%
- Fair 4.78 Fair odds 4.78
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Queens Park Rangers 20/20
- Burnley 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- D 0.62 created, 1.22 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- D 2.54 created, 1.50 conceded against Preston North End
- D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.52 created, 0.85 conceded against Derby County
- L 1.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 3.22 created, 0.20 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
- D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
- W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
- D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 2.35 created, 1.90 conceded against Lincoln City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals
- 50%
- Queens Park Rangers clean sheet
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 9.4%
Why the model favours Queens Park Rangers
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Queens Park Rangers.
- Attack
- Favours Queens Park Rangers
- 7th vs 16th
- Queens Park Rangers attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- Favours Queens Park Rangers
- 4th vs 11th
- Queens Park Rangers defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Queens Park Rangers
- +0.64 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Queens Park Rangers | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.65 · 8th | 1.32 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.12 · 3rd | 1.65 · 20th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 4th | -0.33 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.72 · 4th | 1.11 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.64 | -0.39 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Burnley sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Queens Park Rangers
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Burnley
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.