Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 21:00
25d 8h to kick-offWolverhampton – Derby County
- Wolverhampton
- 60%
- Fair 1.67 Fair odds 1.67
- Draw
- 26%
- Fair 3.84 Fair odds 3.84
- Derby County
- 14%
- Fair 7.11 Fair odds 7.11
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Wolverhampton 12/20
- Derby County 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 09:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.82 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
- D 1.01 created, 0.65 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.84 created, 0.13 conceded against Watford
- L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
- D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
- L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.99 created, 0.56 conceded against Stoke City
- D 1.09 created, 2.47 conceded against Sheffield United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- Wolverhampton 2+ goals
- 56%
- Wolverhampton clean sheet
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 2:0
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
Why the model favours Wolverhampton
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Wolverhampton.
- Attack
- Favours Wolverhampton
- 5th vs 20th
- Wolverhampton attack v Derby County defence
- Defence
- Favours Wolverhampton
- 1st vs 19th
- Wolverhampton defence v Derby County attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Wolverhampton
- +0.82 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wolverhampton | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.72 · 6th | 0.97 · 23rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.92 · 1st | 1.72 · 21st |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.81 · 3rd | -0.75 · 22nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd | 1.02 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.82 | -0.54 |
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wolverhampton sample
- 12 matches
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wolverhampton
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Derby County
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.