Aris Limassol 0:0 Karmiotissa Polemidion: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

Aris Limassol Home 1.84 xG

Karmiotissa Polemidion Away 0.24 xG

00 Aris Limassol had the better chances, but it finished level

Aris Limassol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Karmiotissa Polemidion's attack: 0.24 xG against 0.99 projected (−0.75). Aris Limassol produced 1.84 xG against 2.15 projected (−0.31).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Aris Limassol: 64%
Draw: 23% What happened
Karmiotissa Polemidion: 14%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Aris Limassol 2.15 1.84 -0.31

Karmiotissa Polemidion 0.99 0.24 -0.75

Karmiotissa Polemidion produced 0.75 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Aris Limassol Karmiotissa Polemidion

Shots: 16; 5
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 8; 1
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.05

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Aris Limassol

1.60 xG created 1.42 xGA

W 1.46 created, 1.28 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
L 0.85 created, 1.34 conceded against Pafos FC
L 2.30 created, 1.14 conceded against Apollon Limassol
D 2.39 created, 1.60 conceded against Apollon Limassol
L 1.28 created, 2.20 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 1.31 created, 0.96 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC

Karmiotissa Polemidion

1.66 xG created 2.63 xGA

L 2.20 created, 2.78 conceded against Pafos FC
D 1.45 created, 2.27 conceded against ALS Omonia
D 1.33 created, 2.83 conceded against Omonia Aradippou

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Aris Limassol against Karmiotissa Polemidion before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.91	+15.8%	Lost
Draw	5.00	+12.7%	Won
Karmiotissa Polemidion to win	8.00	+8.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+0.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Aris Limassol	63.9%	69.8%	−5.9 pp	1.57
Draw	22.5%	18.6%	+3.9 pp	4.44
Karmiotissa Polemidion	13.6%	11.6%	+2.0 pp	7.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.7%	48.5%	+12.1 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	51.5%	−12.1 pp	2.54
Over 1.5 goals	85.7%	79.4%	+6.3 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.3%	20.6%	−6.3 pp	7.00
Over 2.5 goals	62.9%	59.9%	+2.9 pp	1.59
Under 2.5 goals	37.1%	40.1%	−2.9 pp	2.69

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Aris Limassol sample: 20 matches
Karmiotissa Polemidion sample: 3 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Karmiotissa Polemidion has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.