Friday, 30/10/2026 at 19:00
26d 18h to kick-offEnosis Neon Ypsona FC – AEK Larnaca
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 30%
- Draw
- 31%
- AEK Larnaca
- 39%
| Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | Draw | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.28 | 3.23 | 2.59 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AEK Larnaca
39% AEK Larnaca to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 9th
- AEK Larnaca attack v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 13th
- AEK Larnaca defence v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.11 vs -0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 1.38
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC v AEK Larnaca
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | AEK Larnaca |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.36 · 10th from 3 matches | (better) 1.93 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.04 · 3rd from 3 matches | 1.56 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.32 · 6th from 3 matches | (better) +0.37 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.62 · 5th from 3 matches | 1.53 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.12 | (better) -0.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- AEK Larnaca clean sheet
- 27%
- AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC sample
- 20 matches
- AEK Larnaca sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · AEK Larnaca
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.