xgEdge

Expected goals

AEK Larnaca expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Cypriot First Division · after 4 matches · updated 1 Oct

AEK Larnaca's attacking and defensive expected goals in Cypriot First Division 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

AEK Larnaca xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.93 xG per match
#3/14
Attack (xG per match) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Omonia Nicosia 2.15
#2 Pafos FC 1.97
#3 AEK Larnaca 1.93
#4 Aris Limassol 1.71
#5 Olympiakos Nicosia 1.69
#6 Omonia Aradippou 1.61
#7 ALS Omonia 1.52
#8 APOEL Nicosia 1.47
#9 AEL Limassol 1.46
#10 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 1.36
#11 Nea Salamina Famagusta 1.34
#12 Karmiotissa Polemidion 1.31
#13 Apollon Limassol 1.18
#14 Anorthosis Famagusta 1.14
League avg
1.55
Total
7.70 4 matches
Defence
1.56 xGA per match
#10/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 APOEL Nicosia 0.68
#2 Omonia Nicosia 0.88
#3 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 1.04
#4 Aris Limassol 1.25
#5 AEL Limassol 1.42
=6 Olympiakos Nicosia 1.52
=6 Apollon Limassol 1.52
#8 Anorthosis Famagusta 1.55
#9 Pafos FC 1.55
#10 AEK Larnaca 1.56
#11 Omonia Aradippou 1.96
#12 Nea Salamina Famagusta 2.04
#13 ALS Omonia 2.15
#14 Karmiotissa Polemidion 2.43
League avg
1.55
Total
6.24 4 matches
xG difference
+0.37 xGD per match
#5/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Omonia Nicosia +1.27
#2 APOEL Nicosia +0.80
#3 Aris Limassol +0.46
#4 Pafos FC +0.42
#5 AEK Larnaca +0.37
#6 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC +0.32
#7 Olympiakos Nicosia +0.17
#8 AEL Limassol +0.04
#9 Apollon Limassol -0.34
#10 Omonia Aradippou -0.36
#11 Anorthosis Famagusta -0.41
#12 ALS Omonia -0.63
#13 Nea Salamina Famagusta -0.69
#14 Karmiotissa Polemidion -1.13
League avg
0.00
Total
+1.46 4 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.53 xPts per match
#6/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Omonia Nicosia 2.26
#2 APOEL Nicosia 1.97
#3 Aris Limassol 1.73
#4 Pafos FC 1.65
#5 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 1.62
#6 AEK Larnaca 1.53
#7 AEL Limassol 1.51
#8 Olympiakos Nicosia 1.48
#9 Omonia Aradippou 1.16
#10 Anorthosis Famagusta 1.09
#11 Apollon Limassol 1.04
#12 ALS Omonia 1.01
#13 Nea Salamina Famagusta 0.97
#14 Karmiotissa Polemidion 0.65
League avg
1.39
Total
6.12 vs 9 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 4 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

AEK Larnaca's underlying numbers are among the best in Cypriot First Division. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.37 per match, built on the league's best chance quality rather than about average shot volume. After only 4 matches, treat every figure here as provisional.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
9 7.70 +1.30 Too early to read
Goals conceded vs xGA
4 6.24 -2.24 Too early to read
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
9 6.12 +2.88 Too early to read

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

AEK Larnaca are 1.30 goals above their xG after 4 matches. The gap was widest at +3.86, against Nea Salamina Famagusta on Sun 06/09.

Goals
9
xG
7.70
Gap
+1.30
Sat 29/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Fri 18/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +2.56 +3.86 +2.51 +1.30 +2.56 +1.30 -1.35 -1.21 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
AEK Larnaca: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 29/08 APOEL Nicosia 3 0.44 +2.56 +2.56
Sun 06/09 Nea Salamina Famagusta 4 2.70 +1.30 +3.86
Sun 13/09 Pafos FC 0 1.35 -1.35 +2.51
Fri 18/09 ALS Omonia 2 3.21 -1.21 +1.30

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

AEK Larnaca xG trend

Current form +0.33 npxGD per match

All 4 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 4 matches. The worst was against APOEL Nicosia on Sat 29/08 (-1.21).

npxG · last 4
1.93
npxGA · last 4
1.60
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.21 Sat 29/08 +1.76 Sun 06/09 -1.02 Sun 13/09 +1.78 Fri 18/09 +0.33 season avg
AEK Larnaca: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 29/08 APOEL Nicosia 0.44 1.65 -1.21 -1.21
Sun 06/09 Nea Salamina Famagusta 2.70 0.94 +1.76 +0.28
Sun 13/09 Pafos FC 1.35 2.37 -1.02 -0.16
Fri 18/09 ALS Omonia 3.21 1.43 +1.78 +0.33

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.93 npxG and 1.60 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 10 hardest of 14 in Cypriot First Division
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 4 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 4 matches · number 10 hardest of 14

  1. ALS Omonia Away −0.42
  2. Pafos FC Home +0.38
  3. Nea Salamina Famagusta Away −0.34
  4. APOEL Nicosia Home +0.24

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

AEK Larnaca shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. AEK Larnaca take 12.0 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.16 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #5 in Cypriot First Division for volume and #1 for quality. 75% of their shots come from inside the box (league 57%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.0 shots per match
#5/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Omonia Nicosia 18.0
#2 Pafos FC 17.5
=3 APOEL Nicosia 12.8
=3 Aris Limassol 12.8
#5 AEK Larnaca 12.0
=6 AEL Limassol 11.8
=6 Omonia Aradippou 11.8
=8 ALS Omonia 11.3
=8 Olympiakos Nicosia 11.3
#10 Nea Salamina Famagusta 10.5
#11 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 10.3
#12 Anorthosis Famagusta 10.0
#13 Karmiotissa Polemidion 9.8
#14 Apollon Limassol 8.8
League avg
12.0
Total
48 shots from 4 matches
Chance quality
0.16 npxG per shot
#1/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AEK Larnaca 0.16
#2 ALS Omonia 0.13
#3 Karmiotissa Polemidion 0.13
#4 Olympiakos Nicosia 0.13
#5 Omonia Nicosia 0.12
#6 Apollon Limassol 0.11
#7 Pafos FC 0.11
#8 Nea Salamina Famagusta 0.11
#9 AEL Limassol 0.11
#10 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 0.11
#11 Omonia Aradippou 0.10
#12 Aris Limassol 0.10
#13 APOEL Nicosia 0.09
#14 Anorthosis Famagusta 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
7.70 npxG from 48 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.0 shots per match
#9/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 APOEL Nicosia 7.0
=2 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 8.0
=2 Omonia Nicosia 8.0
#4 Aris Limassol 9.0
#5 AEL Limassol 10.8
#6 Anorthosis Famagusta 11.3
#7 Pafos FC 11.8
#8 Apollon Limassol 12.3
#9 AEK Larnaca 13.0
#10 Omonia Aradippou 13.8
#11 Nea Salamina Famagusta 14.0
#12 ALS Omonia 14.3
#13 Olympiakos Nicosia 15.0
#14 Karmiotissa Polemidion 19.0
League avg
12.0
Total
52 shots allowed from 4 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#9/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Cypriot First Division, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 APOEL Nicosia 0.07
#2 Omonia Nicosia 0.08
#3 Apollon Limassol 0.08
#4 Olympiakos Nicosia 0.08
#5 AEL Limassol 0.10
#6 Karmiotissa Polemidion 0.12
#7 Nea Salamina Famagusta 0.12
#8 Anorthosis Famagusta 0.12
#9 AEK Larnaca 0.12
#10 Omonia Aradippou 0.13
#11 Enosis Neon Ypsona FC 0.13
#12 Pafos FC 0.13
#13 Aris Limassol 0.14
#14 ALS Omonia 0.15
League avg
0.11
Total
6.39 npxGA from 52 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

75% inside the box

League avg 57%

From 36 of 48 shots over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

60% allowed inside the box

League avg 57%

From 31 of 52 shots allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

AEK Larnaca home and away xG

AEK Larnaca per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 2 2
xG / match 0.90 2.96
xGA / match 1.94 1.18
xGD / match -1.05 +1.78
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.59 2.47

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every AEK Larnaca match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
4
xG / match
1.93
xGA / match
1.56
xGD / match
+0.37
Points
9 of 12
  1. Fri 18/09 ALS Omonia A xG 3.21 xGA 1.42 xGD +1.79
  2. Sun 13/09 Pafos FC H xG 1.35 xGA 2.37 xGD -1.02
  3. Sun 06/09 Nea Salamina Famagusta A xG 2.70 xGA 0.94 xGD +1.76
  4. Sat 29/08 APOEL Nicosia H Against the chances xG 0.44 xGA 1.51 xGD -1.07

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.21. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

AEK Larnaca in Cypriot First Division

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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