Friday, 30/10/2026 at 19:00
26d 17h to kick-offOmonia Nicosia – AEL Limassol
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Omonia Nicosia
- 63%
- Draw
- 24%
- AEL Limassol
- 12%
| Omonia Nicosia | Draw | AEL Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.58 | 4.10 | 8.24 |
- Total goals
- 2.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Omonia Nicosia
63% Omonia Nicosia to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 6th
- Omonia Nicosia attack v AEL Limassol defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 10th
- Omonia Nicosia defence v AEL Limassol attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.07 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.93 – 0.81
- Omonia Nicosia v AEL Limassol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Omonia Nicosia | AEL Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.15 · 1st from 3 matches | 1.46 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.88 · 2nd from 3 matches | 1.42 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.27 · 1st from 3 matches | +0.04 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.26 · 1st from 3 matches | 1.51 · 7th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.07 | -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Omonia Nicosia clean sheet
- 41%
- Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.7%
- 2:0
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Omonia Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- AEL Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Omonia Nicosia
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · AEL Limassol
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.