Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFK Pardubice 2:1 Bohemians Praha 1905
FK Pardubice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FK Pardubice's attack: 0.94 xG against 1.49 projected (−0.55).
Goals
- 2' Dávid Krčík FK Pardubice · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
- 32' Roman Kvet Bohemians Praha 1905 · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
- 52' Václav Drchal FK Pardubice · 0.18 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- FK Pardubice
- 43% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Pardubice produced 0.55 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 11
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.81
- 0.82
- Set-piece xG
- 0.08
- 0.08
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.90 for FK Pardubice and 0.93 for Bohemians Praha 1905.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 1.79 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FK Pardubice
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.34 xG created 1.33 xGA
- L 0.66 created, 2.86 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- D 1.37 created, 0.75 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- L 1.15 created, 1.48 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 1.81 created, 0.80 conceded against SK Líšeň
- D 0.70 created, 0.89 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 2.33 created, 1.21 conceded against Baník Ostrava
1.55 xG created 1.26 xGA
- D 0.68 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 1.94 created, 0.84 conceded against FC Zlín
- D 0.81 created, 2.74 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- D 1.75 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Jablonec
- L 0.42 created, 1.78 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- W 3.70 created, 0.24 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +5.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Pardubice | 43.1% | 46.9% | −3.9 pp | 2.32 |
| Draw | 30.0% | 26.1% | +3.9 pp | 3.33 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 | 26.9% | 26.9% | −0.0 pp | 3.72 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 55.7% | +3.5 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.8% | 44.3% | −3.5 pp | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | 76.6% | +2.0 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.4% | 23.4% | −2.0 pp | 4.68 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 52.6% | −1.6 pp | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 47.4% | +1.6 pp | 2.04 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Pardubice sample
- 20 matches
- Bohemians Praha 1905 sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.