Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 13h to kick-offSK Sigma Olomouc – FC Slovan Liberec
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SK Sigma Olomouc
- 35%
- Draw
- 32%
- FC Slovan Liberec
- 33%
| SK Sigma Olomouc | Draw | FC Slovan Liberec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.86 | 3.12 | 3.03 |
- Total goals
- 2.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% SK Sigma Olomouc to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 3rd
- SK Sigma Olomouc attack v FC Slovan Liberec defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 4th
- SK Sigma Olomouc defence v FC Slovan Liberec attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.06 vs +0.59
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.25 – 1.21
- SK Sigma Olomouc v FC Slovan Liberec
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SK Sigma Olomouc | FC Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.23 · 11th | (better) 1.66 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.21 · 7th | (better) 0.86 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.02 · 7th | (better) +0.80 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.39 · 8th | (better) 1.90 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.07 | (better) +0.59 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- SK Sigma Olomouc clean sheet
- 27%
- SK Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Sigma Olomouc sample
- 20 matches
- FC Slovan Liberec sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SK Sigma Olomouc
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Slovan Liberec
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.