Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeSK Slavia Praha 2:1 Viktoria Plzeň
SK Slavia Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 64' Amar Memić Viktoria Plzeň · 0.27 xG chance 0–1
- 74' Štěpán Chaloupek SK Slavia Praha · 0.15 xG chance 1–1
- 90' Tomáš Chorý (pen.) SK Slavia Praha · 0.82 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- SK Slavia Praha
- 56% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Viktoria Plzeň
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 12
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 10
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.42
- 0.65
- Set-piece xG
- 0.70
- 0.18
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.09 for SK Slavia Praha and 0.83 for Viktoria Plzeň.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 2.77 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SK Slavia Praha
- Viktoria Plzeň
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.27 xG created 1.18 xGA
- W 2.86 created, 0.66 conceded against FK Pardubice
- D 0.67 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
- D 2.74 created, 0.81 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
- W 1.83 created, 2.34 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- W 4.33 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
- W 1.21 created, 1.00 conceded against FK Teplice
1.69 xG created 0.82 xGA
- D 2.49 created, 1.47 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 2.22 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Zlín
- D 1.28 created, 0.41 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
- W 1.70 created, 0.44 conceded against SK Líšeň
- D 0.21 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- L 2.25 created, 0.60 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.20 | +11.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +5.6% | Won |
| Viktoria Plzeň to win | 5.75 | +2.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Slavia Praha | 55.5% | 62.6% | −7.1 pp | 1.80 |
| Draw | 26.6% | 21.6% | +5.0 pp | 3.76 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 17.9% | 15.8% | +2.1 pp | 5.59 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 52.0% | +6.7 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.3% | 48.0% | −6.7 pp | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | 78.3% | +2.9 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 21.7% | −2.9 pp | 5.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 57.1% | −1.9 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 42.9% | +1.9 pp | 2.23 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Slavia Praha sample
- 20 matches
- Viktoria Plzeň sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.