Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 20:15
27d 8h to kick-offGKS Katowice – Widzew Łódź
Model updated 4 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- GKS Katowice
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Widzew Łódź
- 28%
| GKS Katowice | Draw | Widzew Łódź | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.30 | 3.55 | 3.54 |
- Total goals
- 2.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GKS Katowice
44% GKS Katowice to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 7th
- GKS Katowice attack v Widzew Łódź defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 17th
- GKS Katowice defence v Widzew Łódź attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.22 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.33
- GKS Katowice v Widzew Łódź
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | GKS Katowice | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.77 · 3rd | 1.57 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 2.00 · 16th | (better) 1.67 · 13th |
| xGD / match | -0.23 · 14th | (better) -0.10 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.30 · 9th | 1.29 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.22 | -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- GKS Katowice clean sheet
- 24%
- GKS Katowice 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:2
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Widzew Łódź sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · GKS Katowice
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Widzew Łódź
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.