Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeGKS Katowice 3:2 Cracovia
Cracovia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. GKS Katowice won 3–2. The biggest difference was GKS Katowice's attack: 2.72 xG against 1.34 projected (+1.38). Cracovia produced 1.83 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.46).
Goals
- 46' Martin Minchev Cracovia · 0.76 xG chance 0–1
- 54' Bartosz Nowak (pen.) GKS Katowice · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
- 62' Mateusz Wdowiak GKS Katowice · 0.44 xG chance 2–1
- 72' Lasse Selvåg Nordås Cracovia · 0.44 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Ilia Shkurin GKS Katowice · 0.08 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- GKS Katowice
- 34% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Cracovia
- 36%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
GKS Katowice produced 1.38 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 16
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 15
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 1.27
- 1.58
- Set-piece xG
- 0.66
- 0.27
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.93 for GKS Katowice and 1.83 for Cracovia.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
38 shots · 4.60 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- GKS Katowice
- Cracovia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.70 xG created 1.89 xGA
- W 1.80 created, 0.73 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 1.10 created, 2.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
- W 2.90 created, 1.73 conceded against Wisła Płock
- W 1.56 created, 2.50 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- L 1.55 created, 0.87 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- L 1.30 created, 2.62 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
1.65 xG created 1.40 xGA
- D 1.48 created, 0.75 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- W 2.74 created, 0.85 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- W 2.08 created, 1.98 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- L 2.02 created, 1.89 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 0.45 created, 1.44 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- L 1.14 created, 1.48 conceded against Wisła Płock
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia to win | 2.90 | +3.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +3.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 34.2% | 41.6% | −7.4 pp | 2.93 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 26.9% | +3.4 pp | 3.30 |
| Cracovia | 35.5% | 31.5% | +4.0 pp | 2.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | 57.7% | +3.4 pp | 1.64 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.9% | 42.3% | −3.4 pp | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | 78.3% | +1.3 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.4% | 21.7% | −1.3 pp | 4.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 55.3% | −2.8 pp | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 44.7% | +2.8 pp | 2.10 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Cracovia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.