Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:15
Full timeZagłębie Lubin 2:1 GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. Zagłębie Lubin won 2–1. The biggest difference was Zagłębie Lubin's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.30 projected (+1.32).
Goals
- 42' Kamil Nowogoński Zagłębie Lubin · 0.12 xG chance 1–0
- 78' Michalis Kosidis Zagłębie Lubin · 0.21 xG chance 2–0
- 90' Arkadiusz Jędrych (pen.) GKS Katowice · 0.82 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- GKS Katowice
- 37%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Zagłębie Lubin produced 1.32 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 13
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 19
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 1.34
- 0.49
- Set-piece xG
- 1.32
- 0.07
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.62 for Zagłębie Lubin and 0.54 for GKS Katowice.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 4.04 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Zagłębie Lubin
- GKS Katowice
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.19 xG created 1.06 xGA
- W 1.09 created, 0.75 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- L 1.03 created, 1.70 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 0.89 created, 1.26 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- D 1.27 created, 0.78 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- D 1.37 created, 0.82 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- D 1.47 created, 1.02 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
1.68 xG created 1.92 xGA
- L 1.20 created, 2.76 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- W 1.80 created, 0.73 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 1.10 created, 2.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
- W 2.90 created, 1.73 conceded against Wisła Płock
- W 1.56 created, 2.50 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- L 1.55 created, 0.87 conceded against Piast Gliwice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
No value opportunities met the model's threshold before kick-off.
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin | 32.7% | 35.9% | −3.2 pp | 3.05 |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.2% | +2.2 pp | 3.29 |
| GKS Katowice | 36.8% | 35.9% | +0.9 pp | 2.71 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin to score | 75.5% | 75.0% | +0.5 pp | 1.32 |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to score | 24.5% | 25.0% | −0.5 pp | 4.08 |
| GKS Katowice to score | 77.7% | 75.0% | +2.7 pp | 1.29 |
| GKS Katowice not to score | 22.3% | 25.0% | −2.7 pp | 4.49 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 57.7% | +2.8 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.5% | 42.3% | −2.8 pp | 2.53 |
| Zagłębie Lubin 2+ goals | 38.2% | 41.1% | −2.9 pp | 2.62 |
| Zagłębie Lubin at most 1 goal | 61.8% | 58.9% | +2.9 pp | 1.62 |
| GKS Katowice 2+ goals | 41.3% | 41.1% | +0.2 pp | 2.42 |
| GKS Katowice at most 1 goal | 58.7% | 58.9% | −0.2 pp | 1.71 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | 76.9% | +2.2 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 23.1% | −2.2 pp | 4.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 52.7% | −1.0 pp | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 47.3% | +1.0 pp | 2.07 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.