Monday, 07/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeWieczysta Kraków 1:1 Zagłębie Lubin
Wieczysta Kraków were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Wieczysta Kraków's attack: 1.02 xG against 1.64 projected (−0.62). Zagłębie Lubin produced 1.47 xG against 1.07 projected (+0.40).
Goals
- 87' Aleks Ławniczak Zagłębie Lubin · 0.37 xG chance 0–1
- 90' Duje Dujmović Wieczysta Kraków · 0.12 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Wieczysta Kraków
- 49%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 22%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Wieczysta Kraków produced 0.62 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 12
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 11
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.70
- 0.25
- Set-piece xG
- 0.31
- 1.23
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.03 for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.47 for Zagłębie Lubin.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 2.49 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Wieczysta Kraków
- Zagłębie Lubin
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.61 xG created 1.65 xGA
1.34 xG created 1.23 xGA
- L 2.40 created, 2.05 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- W 1.09 created, 0.75 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- L 1.03 created, 1.70 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 0.89 created, 1.26 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- D 1.27 created, 0.78 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- D 1.37 created, 0.82 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +2.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wieczysta Kraków | 49.3% | 46.6% | +2.8 pp | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28.7% | 25.9% | +2.8 pp | 3.48 |
| Zagłębie Lubin | 22.0% | 27.5% | −5.6 pp | 4.55 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 55.7% | +3.2 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.1% | 44.3% | −3.2 pp | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | 78.3% | +1.3 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.4% | 21.7% | −1.3 pp | 4.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 56.3% | −3.8 pp | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 43.7% | +3.8 pp | 2.10 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wieczysta Kraków sample
- 5 matches
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Wieczysta Kraków has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.