Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:30
12d 18h to kick-offWidzew Łódź – Wisła Kraków
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Widzew Łódź
- 29%
- Draw
- 30%
- Wisła Kraków
- 41%
| Widzew Łódź | Draw | Wisła Kraków | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.50 | 3.32 | 2.42 |
- Total goals
- 2.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Wisła Kraków
41% Wisła Kraków to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 7th
- Wisła Kraków attack v Widzew Łódź defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 17th
- Wisła Kraków defence v Widzew Łódź attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.72 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.21 – 1.47
- Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Widzew Łódź | Wisła Kraków |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.57 · 6th | (better) 1.99 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.67 · 13th | (better) 1.10 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.10 · 11th | (better) +0.89 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.29 · 11th | (better) 1.97 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.42 | (better) +0.72 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Wisła Kraków clean sheet
- 27%
- Wisła Kraków 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Widzew Łódź sample
- 20 matches
- Wisła Kraków sample
- 9 matches
- Home xG sample · Widzew Łódź
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Wisła Kraków
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Wisła Kraków has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.