Wisła Kraków 2:1 Śląsk Wrocław: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Wisła Kraków Home 2.51 xG · 26 shots

Śląsk Wrocław Away 0.75 xG · 5 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Wisła Kraków were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Wisła Kraków's attack: 2.51 xG against 1.87 projected (+0.64). Śląsk Wrocław produced 0.75 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.35).

Goals

16' Ángel Rodado Wisła Kraków · 0.32 xG chance 1–0
76' Adam Ciucka Śląsk Wrocław · 0.46 xG chance 1–1
90' Alan Uryga Wisła Kraków · 0.11 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Wisła Kraków: 55% What happened
Draw: 26%
Śląsk Wrocław: 19%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Wisła Kraków 1.87 2.51 +0.64

Śląsk Wrocław 1.10 0.75 -0.35

Wisła Kraków produced 0.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Wisła Kraków Śląsk Wrocław

Shots: 26; 5
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 20; 4
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.15
Open play xG: 1.56; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 0.99; 0.06
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.51 for Wisła Kraków.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.30 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Wisła Kraków
Śląsk Wrocław
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wisła Kraków

1.50 xG created 1.03 xGA

W 1.78 created, 1.49 conceded against Wisła Płock
L 1.69 created, 0.60 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
D 0.86 created, 1.32 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
W 1.64 created, 1.38 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
D 1.35 created, 1.14 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
W 1.68 created, 0.24 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok

Śląsk Wrocław

1.46 xG created 1.57 xGA

D 0.75 created, 1.48 conceded against Cracovia
L 1.26 created, 0.89 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
D 1.83 created, 1.29 conceded against Widzew Łódź
D 1.76 created, 1.82 conceded against Legia Warszawa
L 1.86 created, 1.39 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
L 1.29 created, 2.54 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Wisła Kraków against Śląsk Wrocław before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+0.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wisła Kraków	54.8%	56.9%	−2.1 pp	1.83
Draw	26.2%	24.0%	+2.2 pp	3.82
Śląsk Wrocław	19.1%	19.2%	−0.1 pp	5.25

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wisła Kraków to score	87.0%	85.4%	+1.6 pp	1.15
Wisła Kraków not to score	13.0%	14.6%	−1.6 pp	7.68
Śląsk Wrocław to score	69.7%	66.3%	+3.4 pp	1.43
Śląsk Wrocław not to score	30.3%	33.7%	−3.4 pp	3.30
Both teams to score	62.1%	58.9%	+3.2 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.9%	41.1%	−3.2 pp	2.64
Wisła Kraków 2+ goals	58.0%	58.9%	−0.9 pp	1.72
Wisła Kraków at most 1 goal	42.0%	41.1%	+0.9 pp	2.38
Śląsk Wrocław 2+ goals	30.3%	31.3%	−1.0 pp	3.30
Śląsk Wrocław at most 1 goal	69.7%	68.7%	+1.0 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	83.6%	78.3%	+5.3 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.4%	21.7%	−5.3 pp	6.11
Over 2.5 goals	58.9%	56.3%	+2.6 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.1%	43.7%	−2.6 pp	2.44

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Wisła Kraków sample: 8 matches
Śląsk Wrocław sample: 8 matches
Computed: 31 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Wisła Kraków has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Śląsk Wrocław has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.