Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 14:45
Full timeŚląsk Wrocław 1:2 MKS Korona Kielce
Śląsk Wrocław were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. MKS Korona Kielce won 2–1. The biggest difference was MKS Korona Kielce's attack: 2.54 xG against 1.26 projected (+1.28).
Goals
- 35' Mariusz Stępiński MKS Korona Kielce · 0.17 xG chance 0–1
- 79' Malaly Dembélé Śląsk Wrocław · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
- 90' Simon Gustafson MKS Korona Kielce · 0.48 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Śląsk Wrocław
- 41%
- Draw
- 30%
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 30% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
MKS Korona Kielce produced 1.28 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 17
- On target
- 5
- 7
- Inside the box
- 8
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 1.02
- 2.27
- Set-piece xG
- 0.11
- 0.42
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.13 for Śląsk Wrocław and 2.63 for MKS Korona Kielce.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 3.82 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Śląsk Wrocław
- MKS Korona Kielce
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.50 xG created 1.65 xGA
- W 1.52 created, 3.02 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- D 0.75 created, 1.48 conceded against Cracovia
- L 1.26 created, 0.89 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- D 1.83 created, 1.29 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 1.76 created, 1.82 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- L 1.86 created, 1.39 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
1.09 xG created 1.41 xGA
- L 0.77 created, 1.16 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- D 0.73 created, 0.69 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 2.09 created, 2.31 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 0.88 created, 0.68 conceded against Motor Lublin
- W 0.92 created, 2.25 conceded against Wisła Płock
- D 1.14 created, 1.35 conceded against Wisła Kraków
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Śląsk Wrocław to win | 2.60 | +5.7% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Śląsk Wrocław | 40.6% | 35.2% | +5.4 pp | 2.46 |
| Draw | 29.8% | 28.2% | +1.6 pp | 3.36 |
| MKS Korona Kielce | 29.6% | 36.6% | −7.1 pp | 3.38 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 57.7% | +4.0 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.4% | 42.3% | −4.0 pp | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | 75.0% | +5.4 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.6% | 25.0% | −5.4 pp | 5.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 52.6% | +1.0 pp | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 47.4% | −1.0 pp | 2.15 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Śląsk Wrocław sample
- 7 matches
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- Śląsk Wrocław has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.